Aggregate Economy Risk And Company Failure:An Examination Of Uk Quoted Firms In The Early 1990s
Considerable attention has been directed in the recent finance and economics literature to issues concerning the effects on company failure risk of changes in the macroeconomic environment. This paper examines the accounting ratio-based and macroeconomic determinants of insolvency exit of UK large industrials during the early 1990s with a view to improve understanding of company failure risk. Failure determinants are revealed from estimates based on a cross-section of 369 quoted firms, which is followed by an assessment of predictive performance based on a series of time-to-failure-specific logit functions, as is typical in the literature. Within the traditional for cross-sectional data studies framework, a more complete model of failure risk is developed by adding to a set of traditional financial statement-based inputs, the two variables capturing aggregate economy risk - one-year lagged, unanticipated changes in the nominal interest rate and in the real exchange rate. Alternative estimates of prediction error are obtained, first, by analytically adjusting the apparent error rate for the downward bias and, second, by generating holdout predictions. More complete, augmented with the two macroeconomic variables models demonstrate improved out-ofestimation-sample classificatory accuracy at risk horizons ranging from one to four years prior to failure, with the results being quite robust across a wide range of cutoff probability values, for both failing and nonfailed firms. Although in terms of the individual ratio significance and overall predictive accuracy, the findings of the present study may not be directly comparable with the evidence from prior research due to differing data sets and model specifications, the results are intuitively appealing. First, the results affirm the important explanatory role of liquidity, gearing, and profitability in the company failure process. Second, the findings for the failure probability appear to demonstrate that shocks from un
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||17 Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May.
- Hamer, Michelle M., 1983. "Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 289-307.
- Robson, Martin T, 1996. "Macroeconomic Factors in the Birth and Death of U.K. Firms: Evidence from Quarterly VAT Registrations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(2), pages 170-88, June.
- JOHN HUNTER & Natalia Isachenkova, 2003.
"A Panel Analysis Of Uk Industrial Company Failure,"
Public Policy Discussion Papers
03-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Natalia Isachenkova & John Hunter, 2002. "A Panel Analysis Of UK Industrial Company Failure," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp228, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
- JOHN HUNTER & Natalia Isachenkova, 2003. "A Panel Analysis Of Uk Industrial Company Failure," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
- Goudie, A W & Meeks, G, 1991. "The Exchange Rate and Company Failure in a Macro-Micro Model of the UK Company Sector," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 444-57, May.
- Young, Garry, 1995. "Company Liquidations, Interest Rates and Debt," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 57-69, Suppl..
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Hudson, John, 1996. "The Determinants of Compulsory Liquidation in the U.K," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(3), pages 298-308, September.
- Sudarsanam, P. S. & Taffler, R. J., 1995. "Financial ratio proportionality and inter-temporal stability: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 45-60, April.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-38, March.
- Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
- Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2001. "Failure risk: A comparative study of UK and Russian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-521, July.
- Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989.
"The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Papers 1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Simmons, Peter, 1989. "Bad Luck and Fixed Costs in Personal Bankruptcies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 92-107, March.
- Lambrecht, Bart M, 2001. "The Impact of Debt Financing on Entry and Exit in a Duopoly," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 765-804.
- Peel, MJ & Peel, DA & Pope, PF, 1986. "Predicting corporate failure-- Some results for the UK corporate sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 5-12.
- Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.