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Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms


  • Bhattacharje,e A.

    (Reserve Bank of India)

  • C.Higson

    (London Business School)

  • S.Holly

    (University of Cambridge)

  • P.Kattuman


Using data over a 34-year span on UK quoted firms, this paper seeks to identify the factors that increase the likelihood of exit of firms. Firms may disappear through the mutually precluding events of bankruptcies and acquisitions. We use a competing-risks hazard model to determine characteristics leading to each outcome. Hazard models make use of the data on timing of these alternative outcomes and we exploit this to focus attention on how the hazards change over the business cycles, conditional on the post-listing age of the firm. We find that the volatility in macro environment has a role in determining, in different ways, the hazard of firms going bankrupt or being acquired.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharje,e A. & C.Higson & S.Holly & P.Kattuman, 2002. "Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 27, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:27

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giuseppe Bertola & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2005. "Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 973-1007.
    2. Attanasio, Orazio P., 1995. "The intertemporal allocation of consumption: theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 39-56, June.
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1978. "Liquidity Considerations in the Theory of Consumption," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 279-296.
    4. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Guglielmo Weber, 2005. "Consumer Credit: Evidence From Italian Micro Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 144-178, March.
    5. Alessie, Rob & Devereux, Michael P. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1997. "Intertemporal consumption, durables and liquidity constraints: A cohort analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 37-59, January.
    6. Michael Spence, 1977. "Consumer Misperceptions, Product Failure and Producer Liability," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 561-572.
    7. F. Thomas Juster & Robert P. Shay, 1964. "Consumer Sensitivity to Finance Rates: An Empirical and Analytical Investigation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just64-2, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2004. "A Simple Test for the Absence of Covariate Dependence in Hazard Regression Models," MPRA Paper 3937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    3. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Bhattacharjee, Madhuchhanda, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of Hazard Regression Models under Order Restrictions on Covariate Effects and Ageing," MPRA Paper 3938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fai├žal Belaid, 2014. "Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information," IHEID Working Papers 04-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    6. J. David Brown & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2013. "Does Employing Undocumented Workers Give Firms A Competitive Advantage?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 158-170, February.
    7. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin01050 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gongyu Chen & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella, 2010. "Equity Markets, Financial Integration and Competitive Convergence," Working Paper / FINESS 1.5, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Alessandra Amendola & Marialuisa Restaino & Luca Sensini, 2013. "Corporate Financial Distress And Bankruptcy: A Comparative Analysis In France, Italy And Spain," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 1(2), pages 131-142, November.
    10. David Greenaway & Joakim Gullstrand & Richard Kneller, 2009. "Live or Let Die? Alternative Routes to Industry Exit," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 317-337, July.
    11. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment, Sticky Costs and Operating Leverage over the Business Cycle," SEEC Discussion Papers 1402, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    12. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    13. Greenaway, David & Gullstrand, Joakim & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Surviving globalisation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 264-277, March.
    14. Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2005. "Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models," Econometrics 0503021, EconWPA.
    15. Marcus Box, 2008. "The death of firms: exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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