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On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

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  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.

Suggested Citation

  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2015. "On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 407-428, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ijecbs:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:407-428
    DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2015.1020131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
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    1. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:52:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-018-0716-7 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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