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An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

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  • Gregoriou, Andros
  • Hunter, John
  • Wu, Feng

Abstract

US asset prices are modelled in the short- and long-run with the use of a seemingly unrelated system using monthly data over the time period, 1983-2004. Once the shocks of 1987, 1997 and post-"9·11" have been accounted for, then volatility only affects the consumption and inflation equations. In the long run excess returns and inflation are driven by consumption growth. Money growth impacts excess returns and inflation via consumption. Income is super exogenous implying that policy can be made conditional on this variable and that in the long run investors are primarily concerned with income growth.

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  • Gregoriou, Andros & Hunter, John & Wu, Feng, 2009. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 133-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:133-143
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
    2. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1124-1144.
    3. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme & Emmanuel Sonyo & Godwin Ahiase, 2019. "Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates Volatility and Stock Returns in Ghana," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 89-102, November.
    4. Fengchao Li & Xing Zhang & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Linkages between share pledging, stock price risk and profitability: Evidence from the P.R. China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Majumder, Debasish, 2013. "Towards an efficient stock market: Empirical evidence from the Indian market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 572-587.
    6. Hunter, John & Wu, Feng, 2014. "Multifactor consumption based asset pricing models using the US stock market as a reference: Evidence from a panel of developed economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 557-565.

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