Using A Neural Network-Based Methodology for Credit–Risk Evaluation of A Tunisian Bank
Credit–risk evaluation is a very important and challenging problem for financial institutions. Many classification methods have been suggested in the literature to tackle this problem. Neural networks have especially received a lot of attention because of their universal approximation property. This study contributes to the credit risk evaluation literature in the MENA region. We use a multilayer neural network model to predict if a particular applicant can be classified as solvent or bankrupt. We use a database of 1100 files of loans granted to commercial and industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in 2002 and 2003. Our main results are: a good capacity prediction of 97.1% in the training set and 71% in the validation set for the non cash-flow network. The introduction of cash-flow variables improves the prediction quality to 97.25% and 90% respectively both in the in-sample and out-of-sample sets. Introduction of collateral in the model substantially improves the prediction capacity to 99.5% in the training dataset and to 95.3% in the validation dataset.
|Date of creation:||06 Jan 2008|
|Date of revision:||06 Jan 2008|
|Publication status:||Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 21 Al-Sad Al Aaly St. Dokki, Giza|
Web page: http://www.erf.org.eg
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamadi Matoussi & Rim Mouelhi & Sayah Salah, 1999. "La Prediction De Faillite Des Entreprises Tunisiennes Par La Regression Logistique," Post-Print halshs-00587769, HAL.
- Schmidt-Mohr, Udo, 1997. "Rationing versus collateralization in competitive and monopolistic credit markets with asymmetric information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1321-1342, July.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- repec:bla:joares:v:4:y:1966:i::p:71-111 is not listed on IDEAS
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Namees Nabeel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.