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Using A Neural Network-Based Methodology for Credit–Risk Evaluation of A Tunisian Bank

Listed author(s):
  • Hamadi Matoussi

    ()

    (University of Manouba (Tunisia))

  • Aida Abdelmoula

Credit–risk evaluation is a very important and challenging problem for financial institutions. Many classification methods have been suggested in the literature to tackle this problem. Neural networks have especially received a lot of attention because of their universal approximation property. This study contributes to the credit risk evaluation literature in the MENA region. We use a multilayer neural network model to predict if a particular applicant can be classified as solvent or bankrupt. We use a database of 1100 files of loans granted to commercial and industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in 2002 and 2003. Our main results are: a good capacity prediction of 97.1% in the training set and 71% in the validation set for the non cash-flow network. The introduction of cash-flow variables improves the prediction quality to 97.25% and 90% respectively both in the in-sample and out-of-sample sets. Introduction of collateral in the model substantially improves the prediction capacity to 99.5% in the training dataset and to 95.3% in the validation dataset.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 408.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 06 Jan 2008
Date of revision: 06 Jan 2008
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:408
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  1. Hamadi Matoussi & Rim Mouelhi & Sayah Salah, 1999. "La Prediction De Faillite Des Entreprises Tunisiennes Par La Regression Logistique," Post-Print halshs-00587769, HAL.
  2. Schmidt-Mohr, Udo, 1997. "Rationing versus collateralization in competitive and monopolistic credit markets with asymmetric information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1321-1342, July.
  3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
  5. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
  6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
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