IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtv/ceisrp/311.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara Annicchiarico

    (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")

  • Fabio Di Dio

    (Sogei S.p.A., IT Economia)

  • Francesco Felici

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze, Dipartimento del Tesoro)

Abstract

We study the potential impact of fiscal devaluation policies on the Italian economy using IGEM, a dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. The simulations show that fiscal devaluation policies are likely to produce short-run slight improvements on the external position of the economy, while the output gains seem to persist in the long run. Non-negligible distributional effects across households are also observed, since taxation on consumption tends to be regressive.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," CEIS Research Paper 311, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Sep 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/RP311.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy," IMF Working Papers 2013/022, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 725-760.
    3. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    4. Lukas Vogel & Werner Roeger & Bernhard Herz, 2013. "The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 165-196, February.
    5. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Macroeconomic Policy, Wage Setting, and Employment--What Difference Does the EMU Make?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 125-151, Autumn.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Spain: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/244, International Monetary Fund.
    7. James M. Poterba, 2012. "Comment on "'Fiscal Devaluation' and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 486-493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lukas Vogel, 2013. "The Impact of Structural Policies on External Accounts in Infinite-horizon and Finite-horizon Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117, February.
    9. Ruud de Mooij & Michael Keen, 2012. ""Fiscal Devaluation" and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 443-485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Greece: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/154, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2013. "Simple fiscal policy rules for small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-127.
    14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    15. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    16. Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2014. "Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 909-936, November.
    17. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Pisani, M., 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Greater Competition In The Service Sector: The Case Of Italy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 677-708, November.
    18. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Libero Monteforte, 2013. "IGEM: a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Italy," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    20. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    21. Martin S. Feldstein & Paul R. Krugman, 1990. "International Trade Effects of Value-Added Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Taxation in the Global Economy, pages 263-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    23. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    24. Evers, Michael P., 2012. "Federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 507-525.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Italy: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/298, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan In't Veld, 2009. "Modelling the Lisbon Strategy: Analysing Policies to Promote Knowledge Investment with an Endogenous Growth Model," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 520-539, December.
    27. Isabell Koske, 2013. "Fiscal Devaluation – Can it Help to Boost Competitiveness?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1089, OECD Publishing.
    28. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    29. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sara D'Andrea & Silvia D'Andrea & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Paolo D'Imperio & Giancarlo Infantino & Mara Meacci, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms: The case of Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 250, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    2. Michal Andrle & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package," IMF Working Papers 2018/060, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2020. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 699-711.
    4. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2022. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco & Alleva, Giorgio & Di Dio, Fabio & Liseo, Brunero, 2020. "A stochastic estimated version of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 339-357.
    6. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Radzikowski, Bartosz & Rzońca, Andrzej & Wojciechowski, Wiktor, 2020. "Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 59-81.
    7. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2019. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans," EconStor Preprints 209707, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Nicola Acocella & Giorgio Alleva & Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Fabio Di Dio & Marco Di Pietro & Francesco Felici & Brunero Liseo, 2018. "A stochastic estimated version of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM)," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    10. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Battles, Susan & Di Dio, Fabio & Molina, Pierfrancesco & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2017. "GHG mitigation schemes and energy policies: A model-based assessment for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 495-509.
    11. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2021. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 50/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Goran Vukšić, 2019. "Composition of trade flows and the effectiveness of fiscal devaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 453-477, February.
    13. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    14. Giampaolo Arachi & Debora Assisi, 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and relative prices: evidence from the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 685-716, June.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Susan Battles & Fabio Di Dio & Pierfrancesco Molina & Pietro Zoppoli, 2016. "GEEM: a policy model for assessing climate-energy reforms in Italy," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco Felici, 2013. "Pro-Competitive Reforms And Timing Of Implementation: An Igem-Based Simulation Analysis For Italy," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 155-170, April-Jun.
    2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    3. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    4. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    5. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, "undated". "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    7. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    8. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    9. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipińska, 2014. "Practical Tools For Policy Analysis In Dsge Models With Missing Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1145-1163, November.
    10. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    12. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    13. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    14. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    15. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    16. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    17. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    18. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    19. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    20. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Devaluation; DGE; Structural Reforms; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.