IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v42y2019i2p453-477.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Composition of trade flows and the effectiveness of fiscal devaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Holzner
  • Marina Tkalec
  • Goran Vukšić

Abstract

We empirically explore whether the magnitude of the effects of fiscal devaluation, which consists of reducing the employers’ social security contribution rate and increasing the value‐added tax rate, depends on the composition of trade flows. Our sample comprises data on bilateral balances of trade between 28 European Union (EU) Member States and their main EU trade partners over the 2000–14 period. We use robust ordinary least squares regressions, controlling for the country‐pair and time fixed effects, to test whether there are differences in the sizes of relationships between these taxation forms and bilateral trade balances for different types of goods, by distinguishing between: (i) consumer, intermediate and capital goods; and (ii) labour and capital‐intensive goods. Our results show that the overall effectiveness of fiscal devaluation depends on the composition of trade flows. Value‐added tax is more strongly (positively) associated with (bilateral) balances of trade in consumer goods, compared to balances of trade in capital and intermediate goods. The employers’ contribution rate, in contrast, is more tightly (negatively) related to balances of trade in capital goods. The latter finding also holds true for trade balances of labour‐intensive goods compared to balances of capital‐intensive goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Goran Vukšić, 2019. "Composition of trade flows and the effectiveness of fiscal devaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 453-477, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:2:p:453-477
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12700
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12700
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.12700?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yong-Seok Choi & Pravin Krishna, 2004. "The Factor Content of Bilateral Trade: An Empirical Test," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 887-914, August.
    2. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring.
    3. Michael Peneder, 2002. "special issue: Intangible investment and human resources," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 107-134.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi, 2013. "Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ales11-1.
    5. Reinout De Bock, 2012. "The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 5-33.
    6. Philipp Engler & Giovanni Ganelli & Juha Tervala & Simon Voigts, 2017. "Fiscal Devaluation in a Monetary Union," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 241-272, June.
    7. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
    8. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    9. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Jonathan Vogel & Iván Werning, 2015. "Comparative Advantage and Optimal Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 659-702.
    10. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    11. Kerstin Bernoth & Patrick Burauel & Philipp Engler, 2014. "Fiskalische Abwertung: wirtschaftlicher Impuls für die Krisenländer im Euroraum," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(39), pages 916-922.
    12. Harald Badinger & Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2017. "Fiscal Rules and Twin Deficits: The Link between Fiscal and External Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 21-35, January.
    13. Agnieszka Gehringer, 2015. "New evidence on the determinants of current accounts in the EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 769-793, November.
    14. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
    15. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "The Factor Content of Foreign Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 84-94, March.
    16. Debeare, Peter, 2003. "Relative Factor Abundance and Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 589-610, June.
    17. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
    18. Joong Shik Kang & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2016. "The rise and fall of European current account deficits," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 153-199.
    19. Ruo Chen & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2013. "External imbalances in the eurozone [Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 101-142.
    20. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q4-132-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
    22. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek & Goran Vukšić, 2018. "Fiscal devaluations: evidence using bilateral trade balance data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 247-275, May.
    23. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    24. Naveed, Amjad & Naz, Amber & Ahmad, Nisar, 2017. "Wage Convergence across European Regions : Do International Borders Matter?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 32(1), pages 35-64.
    25. Mr. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/226, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Brecher, Richard A. & Choudhri, Ehsan U., 1982. "The factor content of international trade without factor-price equalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 277-283, May.
    27. Laura Puglisi, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluations in the Euro Area: What has been done since the crisis?," Taxation Papers 47, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amat Adarov & Mario Holzner & Branimir Jovanović & Goran Vukšić, 2021. "Labour Taxes and International Trade: The Role of Domestic Labour Value Added," wiiw Working Papers 205, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Hasim Akca & Oguzhan Bozatli, 2020. "Fiscal devaluation and net export: dynamic panel data analysis on the Euro Area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1500-1504, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Holzner & Maruška Vizek & Goran Vukšić, 2022. "Wage Bargaining Coordination, Taxation and Labor Costs: The Effects of Fiscal Devaluation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 324-349, June.
    2. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851, April.
    3. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2010. "Factor content of bilateral trade: the role of firm heterogeneity and transaction costs," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 305-317, May.
    5. Takatoshi Tabuchi & Kristian Behrens & Andrea R. Lamorgese, 2004. "Testing the Home Market Effects in a Multi-country World: The Theory," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 595, Econometric Society.
    6. Lai, Huiwen & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2007. "Technology, endowments, and the factor content of bilateral trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 389-409, April.
    7. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2022. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek & Goran Vukšić, 2018. "Fiscal devaluations: evidence using bilateral trade balance data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 247-275, May.
    9. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2010. "Factor content of bilateral trade: the role of firm heterogeneity and transaction costs," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 305-317, May.
    10. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2021. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 50/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Kristian Behrens & Andrea R. Lamorgese & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Takatoshi Tabuchi, 2005. "Testing the 'home market effect' in a multi-country world: A theory-based approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 561, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Amat Adarov & Mario Holzner & Branimir Jovanović & Goran Vukšić, 2021. "Labour Taxes and International Trade: The Role of Domestic Labour Value Added," wiiw Working Papers 205, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Giampaolo Arachi & Debora Assisi, 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and relative prices: evidence from the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 685-716, June.
    14. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    15. Robert C. Shelburne, 2002. "Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade in a Multi-Country Helpman-Krugman Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 53-73.
    16. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring.
    17. J. Peter Neary, 2009. "Putting the “New” into New Trade Theory: Paul Krugman's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 217-250, June.
    18. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Labor Tax Reductions In Europe: The Role Of Property Taxation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 419-451, March.
    19. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "Do Factor Endowments Matter for North-North Trade?," NBER Working Papers 8516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Daniel Bernhofen, 2007. "Predicting the Factor Content of Foreign Trade: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 07/11, University of Nottingham, GEP.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:2:p:453-477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.