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Is the Green Transition Inflationary?



We develop a multi-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the inflationary effects of climate policies. Climate policies need not be inflationary, but can generate an inflation-output tradeoff whose size depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies. A quantitative version of the model calibrated to U.S. data on input-output linkages and sectoral heterogeneity in emissions and price stickiness suggests that an increase in carbon taxes would generate a sizable tradeoff: containing the impact on headline or core inflation would lead to a deep recession. But while sizeable, the tradeoff is relatively short-lived as it wanes after one year.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Julian di Giovanni & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Is the Green Transition Inflationary?," Staff Reports 1053, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:95652
    Note: Revised December 2023.

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2021. "Demand or supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2608, European Central Bank.
    3. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fulvia Marotta, 2021. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Papers 933, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    5. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9563, CESifo.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    8. Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: an assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," Working Paper Series 2819, European Central Bank.
    2. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 10552, CESifo.

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    More about this item


    inflation; central bank's tradoffs; green transition; input-output linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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