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Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Ciccarelli

    (European Central Bank)

  • Fulvia Marotta

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Ciccarelli & Fulvia Marotta, 2021. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Papers 933, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:933
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Julian di Giovanni & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Is the Green Transition Inflationary?," Liberty Street Economics 20230214, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Brendan Berthold & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Federico Di Pace & Alex Haberis, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence," Discussion Papers 2319, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2024. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Giovanardi, Francesco & Kaldorf, Matthias, 2024. "Climate change and the macroeconomics of bank capital regulation," Discussion Papers 13/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 655-682, March.
    6. Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2023. "Stellungnahme "Übergreifende Kostenbetrachtung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in Schleswig-Holstein"," IWH Policy Notes 1/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Banning, Maximilian & Großmann, Anett & Heinisch, Katja & Hohmann, Frank & Lutz, Christian & Schult, Christoph, 2023. "Evidence-based support for adaptation policies in emerging economies," IWH Studies 2/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental policy; Environment-related technologies; Physical risks; Business cycle; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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