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Is the Green Transition Inflationary?

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Abstract

Are policies aimed at fighting climate change inflationary? In a new staff report we use a simple model to argue that this does not have to be the case. The model suggests that climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation but may generate a trade-off between inflation and employment objectives. The presence and size of this trade-off depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Julian di Giovanni & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Is the Green Transition Inflationary?," Liberty Street Economics 20230214, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:95653
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    1. Bettarelli, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Pisano, Loredana & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2025. "Greenflation: Empirical evidence using macro, regional and sectoral data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel & Frank Smets, 2024. "The New Keynesian Climate Model," Working papers 977, Banque de France.
    4. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Guido Ascari & Andrea Colciago & Timo Haber & Stefan Wöhrmüller, 2025. "Inequality along the European green transition," Working Papers 830, DNB.
    6. John Aguirre & Alan Ledesma & Fernando Perez & Youel Rojas, 2025. "Economic Activity, Inflation, and Monetary Policy after Extreme Weather Events: ENSO and its Economic Impact on the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2025-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Alexandre Chirat & Basile Clerc, 2025. "A “Climate War Economy”? Medium-run Macroeconomic Disequilibrium of the Green Transition," Working Papers 2025-10, CRESE.
    9. Luca Fornaro & Veronica Guerrieri & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2025. "Monetary policy for the green transition," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 160, February.
    10. Matthias Burgert & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Luigi Durand & Mario Gonzalez & Romanos Priftis & Oke Röhe & Matthias Rottner & Edgar Silgado-Gómez & Nikolai Stähler & Janos Varga, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison," BIS Working Papers 1313, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    12. Ahn, JaeBin, 2025. "Greenflation or greensulation? The case of fuel excise taxes and oil price pass-through," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Celso Brunetti & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2024. "Climate-Related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 30(1), pages 1-37, October.
    14. Garcia, Pablo & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lenarčič, Črt & Mavromatis, Kostas & Papadopoulou, Niki & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2026. "Green transition in the euro area: Domestic and global factors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    17. Nerlich, Carolin & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Andersson, Malin & Pasqua, Carlo & Abraham, Laurent & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Emambakhsh, Tina & Ferrando, Annalisa & Grynberg, Charlotte & Groß, Johannes & H, 2025. "Investing in Europe’s green future - Green investment needs, outlook and obstacles to funding the gap," Occasional Paper Series 367, European Central Bank.
    18. Attílio, Luccas Assis, 2025. "Does energy transition affect domestic inflation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    19. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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