IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20212568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

No country is an island: international cooperation and climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Pagliari, Maria Sole
  • Ferrari Minesso, Massimo

Abstract

In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. We estimate the model using US and euro area data and we characterize welfare-enhancing equilibria under alternative containment policies. Three main policy implications emerge: i) fiscal policy should focus on reducing emissions by levying taxes on polluting production activities; ii) monetary policy should look through environmental objectives while standing ready to support the economy when the costs of the environmental transition materialize; iii) international cooperation is crucial to obtain a Pareto improvement under the proposed policies. We finally find that the objective of reducing emissions by 50%, which is compatible with the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels, would not be attainable in absence of international cooperation even with the support of monetary policy. JEL Classification: F42, E50, E60, F30

Suggested Citation

  • Pagliari, Maria Sole & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2021. "No country is an island: international cooperation and climate change," Working Paper Series 2568, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2568~573204d7e7.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Böhringer & Jared C. Carbone & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2016. "The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 28-51, February.
    2. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    3. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Keen, Michael & Kotsogiannis, Christos, 2014. "Coordinating climate and trade policies: Pareto efficiency and the role of border tax adjustments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 119-128.
    5. Aichele, Rahel & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2012. "Kyoto and the carbon footprint of nations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 336-354.
    6. Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen & Augustus J Panton, 2020. "Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 579-603.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Maddison, David, 2003. "The amenity value of the climate: the household production function approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-175, May.
    9. Martin M Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2018. "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 1-49.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    11. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    12. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    13. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption‐based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2863-2878, December.
    14. M S Eichenbaum & B K Johannsen & S T Rebelo, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 192-228.
    15. Waldhoff, Stephanie & Anthoff, David & Rose, Steven K. & Tol, Richard S. J., 2014. "The marginal damage costs of different greenhouse gases: An application of FUND," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-33.
    16. Kuan-Min Wang, 2013. "The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: quantile panel-type analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1337-1366, April.
    17. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    18. Joshua Elliott & Ian Foster & Samuel Kortum & Todd Munson & Fernando Pérez Cervantes & David Weisbach, 2010. "Trade and Carbon Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 465-469, May.
    19. Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: The role of the effective lower bound and the labour market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    21. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    22. Lindé, Jesper & Pescatori, Andrea, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of trade tariffs: Revisiting the Lerner symmetry result," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 52-69.
    23. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    24. Thomas Allen & Stéphane Dees & Jean Boissinot & Carlos Mateo Caicedo Graciano & Valérie Chouard & Laurent Clerc & Annabelle de Gaye & Antoine Devulder & Sébastien Diot & Noémie Lisack & Fulvio Pegorar, 2020. "Climate-Related Scenarios for Financial Stability Assessment: an Application to France," Working papers 774, Banque de France.
    25. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    26. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    27. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    28. Bombardini, Matilde & Li, Bingjing, 2020. "Trade, pollution and mortality in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    29. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    30. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    31. Benmir, Ghassane & Jaccard, Ivan & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Green asset pricing," Working Paper Series 2477, European Central Bank.
    32. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1112, September.
    33. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    34. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Simon Scheidegger, 2020. "Pareto-Improving Carbon-Risk Taxation," NBER Working Papers 26919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Dietrich, Alexander & Müller, Gernot & Schoenle, Raphael, 2021. "The Expectations Channel of Climate Change: Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    37. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    38. Jana Hojnik & Mitja Ruzzier & Maja Konečnik Ruzzier, 2019. "Transition towards Sustainability: Adoption of Eco-Products among Consumers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-29, August.
    39. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2021. "LSIs’ exposures to climate change related risks: an approach to assess physical risks," Working Paper Series 2517, European Central Bank.
    40. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    41. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    42. Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
    43. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    44. Brock, William A. & Engström, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2013. "Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2371-2396.
    45. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1966. "Intermediate Products and Differential Tariffs: A Generalization of Lerner's Symmetry Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 584-615.
    46. Ferrari, Alessandro & Landi, Valerio Nispi, 2020. "Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy," Working Paper Series 2500, European Central Bank.
    47. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2021. "Optimal carbon abatement in a stochastic equilibrium model with climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    48. William Nordhaus, 2015. "Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-Riding in International Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1339-1370, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. No country is an island: International cooperation and climate change
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-09-14 15:00:18

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Actions, Market Beliefs and Monetary Policy," CEIS Research Paper 535, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Mar 2022.
    2. Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2022. "Toward a green economy: the role of central bank's asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1358, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2022. "Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 686, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Chmielewska Anna & Sławiński Andrzej, 2021. "Climate crisis, central banks and the IMF reform," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(4), pages 7-27, December.
    6. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2021. "To be or not to be “green”: how can monetary policy react to climate change?," Occasional Paper Series 285, European Central Bank.
    7. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2022. "DSGE Nash: solving Nash games in macro models," Working Paper Series 2678, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    2. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
    3. Elton Beqiraj & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2014. "Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal Policies inHigh Unemployment EZ Countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 165, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    4. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
    5. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    6. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
    7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    8. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    9. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
    11. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
    12. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2021. "Bayesian Local Projections," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1348, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017. "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
    16. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "DSGE priors for BVAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 627-656, March.
    18. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    19. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    20. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate modelling; DSGE model; open-economy macroeconomics; optimal policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.