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Pareto-improving carbon-risk taxation
[The environment and directed technical change]

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Kotlikoff
  • Felix Kubler
  • Andrey Polbin
  • Simon Scheidegger

Abstract

SummaryAnthropogenic climate change produces two conceptually distinct negative economic externalities. The first is an expected path of climate damage. The second, the focus of this paper, is an expected path of economic risk. To isolate the climate-risk problem, we consider three mean-zero, symmetric shocks in our 12-period, overlapping generations model. These shocks impact dirty energy usage (carbon emissions), the relationship between carbon concentration and temperature and the connection between temperature and damages. By construction, our model exhibits a de minimis climate problem absent its shocks. However, due to non-linearities, symmetric shocks deliver negatively skewed impacts, including the potential for climate disasters. As we show, Pareto-improving carbon taxation can dramatically lower climate risk, in general, and disaster risk, in particular. The associated climate-risk tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting climate risk, can be as large as, or larger than, the carbon average-damage tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting average damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Pareto-improving carbon-risk taxation [The environment and directed technical change]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(107), pages 551-589.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:36:y:2021:i:107:p:551-589.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/epolic/eiab008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    3. Aryan Eftekhari & Michel Juillard & Normann Rion & Simon Scheidegger, 2025. "Scalable Global Solution Techniques for High-Dimensional Models in Dynare," Papers 2503.11464, arXiv.org.
    4. Abiry, Raphael & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Ludwig, Alexander & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "Climate change mitigation: How effective is green quantitative easing?," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Aryan Eftekhari & Simon Scheidegger, 2022. "High-Dimensional Dynamic Stochastic Model Representation," Papers 2202.06555, arXiv.org.
    6. Torben K. Mideksa, 2020. "Pricing Pollution," CESifo Working Paper Series 8269, CESifo.
    7. Van Khanh Pham & Minh Le, 2024. "Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Environmental Quality through Technical Change: A Free Dynamic Equilibrium Approach," Papers 2410.06501, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    8. Frederick Ploeg, 2023. "Fiscal Costs of Climate Policies: Role of Tax, Political, and Behavioural Distortions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(2), pages 119-137, June.

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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