IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transition to Clean Technology

Author

Listed:
  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Ufuk Akcigit
  • Douglas Hanley
  • William Kerr

Abstract

We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth where clean and dirty technologies compete in production and innovation—in the sense that research can be directed to either clean or dirty technologies. If dirty technologies are more advanced to start with, the potential transition to clean technology can be difficult both because clean research must climb several rungs to catch up with dirty technology and because this gap discourages research effort directed towards clean technologies. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may nonetheless encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We characterize certain general properties of the transition path from dirty to clean technology. We then estimate the model using a combination of regression analysis on the relationship between R&D and patents, and simulated method of moments using microdata on employment, production, R&D, firm growth, entry and exit from the US energy sector. The model's quantitative implications match a range of moments not targeted in the estimation quite well. We then characterize the optimal policy path implied by the model and our estimates. Optimal policy makes heavy use of research subsidies as well as carbon taxes. We use the model to evaluate the welfare consequences of a range of alternative policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2014. "Transition to Clean Technology," NBER Working Papers 20743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20743
    Note: EEE EFG IO PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20743.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William Kerr & Shihe Fu, 2008. "The survey of industrial R&D—patent database link project," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 173-186, April.
    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    3. Bard Harstad, 2012. "Climate Contracts: A Game of Emissions, Investments, Negotiations, and Renegotiations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1527-1557.
    4. Ted Temzelides & Borghan Narajabad & Bernardino Adao, 2016. "Renewable Technology Adoption and the Macroeconomy," 2016 Meeting Papers 6, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Jerome Adda & Russell W. Cooper, 2003. "Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012014, December.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    7. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508131350 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508211365 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hartley, Peter & Medlock, Kenneth B., III & Temzelides, Ted & Zhang, Xinya, 2014. "Energy Sector Innovation and Growth," Working Papers 14-009, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    12. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    13. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2011. "Climate change mitigation options and directed technical change: A decentralized equilibrium analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 938-962.
    14. Natarajan Balasubramanian & Jagadeesh Sivadasan, 2011. "What Happens When Firms Patent? New Evidence from U.S. Economic Census Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 126-146, February.
    15. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michael Greenstone & Elizabeth Kopits & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Developing a Social Cost of Carbon for US Regulatory Analysis: A Methodology and Interpretation," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46, January.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. John Hassler & Per Krusell, 2012. "Economics And Climate Change: Integrated Assessment In A Multi-Region World," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 974-1000, October.
    20. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    21. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim, 2010. "Characteristics of the Top R&D Performing Firms in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Industrial R&D," Working Papers 10-33, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    23. Hasan, Iftekhar & Massoud, Nadia & Saunders, Anthony & Song, Keke, 2015. "Which financial stocks did short sellers target in the subprime crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    24. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Delis, Manthos & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios, 2015. "Banks’ Risk Endogenous to Strategic Management Choices," MPRA Paper 64907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    27. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508211363 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Lans Bovenberg, A. & Smulders, Sjak, 1995. "Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 369-391, July.
    29. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201504091146 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
    32. Popp, David & Newell, Richard, 2012. "Where does energy R&D come from? Examining crowding out from energy R&D," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 980-991.
    33. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511261453 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2015. "Firms' risk endogenous to strategic management choices," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2015, Bank of Finland.
    37. Juan Carlos Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1998. "Voiting on social security reform with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers in Economics 36, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    38. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    40. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Euro area monetary and fiscal policy tracking design in the time-frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland.
    42. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Douglas Hanley & Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2014. "Transition to Clean Technology," Working Paper 534, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2014.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & Nicholas Bloom & William Kerr, 2018. "Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3450-3491, November.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Óscar Afonso & Liliana Fonseca & Manuela Magalhães & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2021. "Directed technical change and environmental quality," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(1), pages 71-97, January.
    7. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    8. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    9. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    10. Lin, Jenny X. & Lincoln, William F., 2017. "Pirate's treasure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 235-245.
    11. Isabel Tecu, 2013. "The Location of Industrial Innovation: Does Manufacturing Matter?," Working Papers 13-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    12. William R. Kerr & Scott Duke Kominers, 2015. "Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 877-899, October.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_026 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    15. Nesta, Lionel & Vona, Francesco & Nicolli, Francesco, 2014. "Environmental policies, competition and innovation in renewable energy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 396-411.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    17. Frederick Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2019. "Simple Rules for Climate Policy and Integrated Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 77-108, January.
    18. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2016. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, pages 187-249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Eerola, Essi & Saarimaa, Tuukka, 2015. "Who Benefits from Public Housing?," Working Papers 68, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Ramana Nanda & William R. Kerr, 2015. "Financing Innovation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 445-462, December.
    21. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
    22. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101465 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Noailly, Joëlle & Smeets, Roger, 2015. "Directing technical change from fossil-fuel to renewable energy innovation: An application using firm-level patent data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-37.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.