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The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Berthold, Brendan
  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
  • Di Pace, Federico
  • Haberis, Alex

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic effects of carbon pricing policies using a panel of countries that are members of the EU Emissions Trading System. Carbon pricing shocks lead, on average across countries, to a decline in economic activity, higher inflation, and tighter financial conditions. These average responses mask a large degree of heterogeneity: the effects are larger for higher carbon-emitting countries. To sharpen identification, we exploit granular firm-level data and document that firms with higher carbon emissions are the most responsive to carbon pricing shocks. We develop a theoretical model with green and brown firms that accounts for these empirical patterns and sheds light on the transmission mechanisms at play.

Suggested Citation

  • Berthold, Brendan & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Di Pace, Federico & Haberis, Alex, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 18312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18312
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    2. Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa & Agustín García & Rodrigo Falbo & Juan Rubio, 2025. "Global | Descifrando el impacto de los precios del carbono en la macroeconomía [Global | Unraveling the impact of a carbon price shock on macroeconomic variables]," Working Papers 25/04, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Mangiante, Giacomo, 2024. "The geographic effects of carbon pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Kaldorf, Matthias, 2025. "Optimal central bank collateral policy for the net zero transition," Discussion Papers 28/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Le, Anh H., 2025. "Climate change and Carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea & Boto-García, David, 2025. "Up in the air: How do carbon policy shocks affect air travel?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 54-68.
    9. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    10. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Cepeda, Ana & Panizza, Ugo, 2024. "Environmental Damage News and Stock Returns: Evidence from Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13537, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Matzner, Anna & Steininger, Lea, 2024. "Firms’ heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases," Working Paper Series 2958, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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