IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9563.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

We study how carbon pricing has affected inflation ex-post, using dynamic panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for 35 OECD economies from 1995 to 2020. As carbon pricing we consider prices of emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon taxes. We find that an increase in prices of ETS by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases energy CPI inflation by 0.8 percentage points (pp), and headline inflation by 0.08pp, but has no significant effects on food and core CPI inflation. We also find that an increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases food CPI inflation by 0.1pp, but has no significant effects on energy CPI inflation, headline and core CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9563, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9563.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muûls & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2016. "The Impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Regulated Firms: What Is the Evidence after Ten Years?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 129-148.
    3. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Elod Takáts, 2021. "Effects of Carbon Pricing and Other Climate Policies on CO2 Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9347, CESifo.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. Martin, Ralf & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of a carbon tax on manufacturing: Evidence from microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    7. Levin, Andrew T. & Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview," Working Paper Series 539, European Central Bank.
    8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Xuehui, 2011. "The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5137-5146, September.
    10. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    11. Gerbert Hebbink & Laurien Berkvens & Maurice Bun & Henk van Kerkhoff & Juho Koistinen & Guido Schotten & Ad Stokman, 2018. "The price of transition: an analysis of the economic implications of carbon taxing," DNB Occasional Studies 1608, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Andersson, Malin & Baccianti, Claudio & Morgan, Julian, 2020. "Climate change and the macro economy," Occasional Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    13. Julius J. Andersson, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    2. Richhild Moessner, 2025. "Effects of Energy Prices on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11682, CESifo.
    3. Moessner, Richhild, 2024. "Effects Of Inflation Expectations On Inflation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 270, pages 55-63, November.
    4. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Food and Energy Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10164, CESifo.
    5. Erbertseder, Thilo & Jacob, Martin & Taubenböck, Hannes & Zerwer, Kira, 2025. "How effective are emission taxes in reducing air pollution? A satellite-based case study for Spain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1037-1063.
    6. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Carbon taxation: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1353-1388, September.
    7. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    8. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Moessner, Richhild, 2022. "Globalisation and the slope of the Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Ott, Laurent & Weber, Sylvain, 2022. "How effective is carbon taxation on residential heating demand? A household-level analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Rafaty, Ryan & Dolphin, Geoffroy & Pretis, Felix, 2025. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Fernández-López, Reinier & Mardones, Cristian, 2025. "Impact evaluation of the carbon tax in Chile using the difference-in-differences method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    13. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Determinants of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 99-102, March.
    15. Jessica F. Green, 2021. "Beyond Carbon Pricing: Tax Reform is Climate Policy," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(3), pages 372-379, May.
    16. Anderson, Heather M. & Gao, Jiti & Turnip, Guido & Vahid, Farshid & Wei, Wei, 2023. "Estimating the effect of an EU-ETS type scheme in Australia using a synthetic treatment approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Ben Brunckhorst & Ruth Hill & Ghazala Mansuri & Trang Nguyen & Miki Doan, 2023. "Climate and Equity," World Bank Publications - Reports 39952, The World Bank Group.
    18. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    19. Sanjay Kumar Patel & Piyush Jhalani, 2024. "Formulation of variables of environmental taxation: a bibliometric analysis of Scopus database (2001–2022)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 7687-7714, March.
    20. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.