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Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation

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  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

We study how carbon pricing has affected inflation ex-post, using dynamic panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for 35 OECD economies from 1995 to 2020. As carbon pricing we consider prices of emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon taxes. We find that an increase in prices of ETS by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases energy CPI inflation by 0.8 percentage points (pp), and headline inflation by 0.08pp, but has no significant effects on food and core CPI inflation. We also find that an increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases food CPI inflation by 0.1pp, but has no significant effects on energy CPI inflation, headline and core CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9563, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S. & Zhang, Philipp, 2023. "Shocks to transition risk," Discussion Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Andreas Breitenfellner & Friedrich Fritzer & Doris Prammer & Fabio Rumler & Mirjam Salish, 2022. "What is the impact of carbon pricing on inflation in Austria?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/22, pages 23-41.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Julian di Giovanni & Keshav Dogra, 2023. "Is the Green Transition Inflationary?," Liberty Street Economics 20230214, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Łukasz Markowski & Kamil Kotliński, 2023. "Renewables, Energy Mix and Inflation in the European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Ferrari, Alessandro & Landi, Valerio Nispi, 2022. "Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter," Working Paper Series 2726, European Central Bank.
    6. Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," Working Papers 2024.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. ""Green" fiscal policy measures and non-standard monetary policy in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 10552, CESifo.
    9. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    10. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: evidence from France," ECON - Working Papers 434, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Food and Energy Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10164, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate policies; carbon tax; carbon emission trading system; climate change; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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