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Gains associated with linking the EU and Chinese ETS under different assumptions on restrictions, allowance endowments, and international trade

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  • Winkler, Malte
  • Peterson, Sonja
  • Thube, Sneha

Abstract

Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost-efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas mitigation targets, but both partners will benefit - if at all - to different degrees. Using the global computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model DART Kiel, we evaluate the effects of linking ETS in combination with 1) restricted allowances trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are met. We find that generally, both partners benefit from linking their respective trading systems. Yet, while the EU prefers full linking, China favors restricted allowance trading. Transfer payments through adjusted allowance endowments cannot sufficiently compensate China so as to make full linking as attractive as restricted trading. Gains associated with linking increase with higher Armington elasticities for China, but decrease for the EU. Overall, the EU and China favor differing options of linking ETS. Moreover, heterogeneous impacts across EU countries could cause dissent among EU regions, potentially increasing the difficulty of finding a linking solution favorable for all trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Malte & Peterson, Sonja & Thube, Sneha, 2021. "Gains associated with linking the EU and Chinese ETS under different assumptions on restrictions, allowance endowments, and international trade," Kiel Working Papers 2185, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2185
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    1. Heimann, Tobias & Delzeit, Ruth, 2024. "Land for fish: Quantifying the connection between the aquaculture sector and agricultural markets," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 281986, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ma, Guangcheng & Qin, Jiahong & Zhang, Yumeng, 2023. "Does the carbon emissions trading system reduce carbon emissions by promoting two-way FDI in developing countries? Evidence from Chinese listed companies and cities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Zhou, Xiaoxiao & Zhao, Yongan & Chen, Dengsheng, 2025. "Emissions trading scheme's effect on enterprises' sustainable development in China: A differential game and a quasi-natural experiment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Lili Liu & Tiantian Feng & Cheng Zhong & Mingli Cui & Haoran Wang, 2025. "Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Che, Shuai & Wang, Jun, 2022. "Policy effectiveness of market-oriented energy reform: Experience from China energy-consumption permit trading scheme," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    6. Jing Han & Weilin Zhu & Chaofan Chen, 2023. "Identifying Emissions Reduction Opportunities in International Bilateral Emissions Trading Systems to Achieve China’s Energy Sector NDCs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Jia, Zhijie & Wen, Shiyan, 2024. "Interaction effects of market-based and incentive-driven low-carbon policies on carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Deng, Yanru & Nepal, Rabindra & Shao, Xuefeng & Ding, Chante Jian & Wu, Zhan, 2024. "Zooming in or zooming out: Energy strategy, developmental parity and regional entrepreneurial dynamism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 25/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Duan, Haoran & Yu, Shiwei & Geng, Haopeng & Cheng, Jinhua, 2025. "Economic vulnerability and resilience analyses for China's iron and steel industry: Insights from COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Heimann, Tobias & Delzeit, Ruth, 2024. "Land for fish: Quantifying the connection between the aquaculture sector and agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Yaxue Yan & Weijuan Liang & Banban Wang & Xiaoling Zhang, 2023. "Spillover effect among independent carbon markets: evidence from China’s carbon markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3065-3093, October.
    13. Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: Options for international cooperation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Rickels, Wilfried & Meier, Felix & Peterson, Sonja & Rühland, Sina & Thube, Sneha & Karstensen, Johannes & Posern, Conny & Wolff, Claudia & Vafeidis, Athanasios T. & Grasse, Patricia & Quaas, Martin, 2024. "The ocean carbon sink enhances countries’ inclusive wealth and reduces the cost of national climate policies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 307006, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Johannes Ziesmer & Ding Jin & Sneha D Thube & Christian Henning, 2023. "A Dynamic Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1331-1368, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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