IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v45y2014i1p87-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Crafts

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper considers Ireland’s growth prospects through 2030. Real GDP growth averaging 3 per cent per year is possible but will require a stronger labour productivity growth performance than is currently projected by OECD. Success depends on a favourable external environment and would be jeopardised by a return to the pre-crisis “bubble economy” but can be underpinned by exploiting the remaining scope for catch-up growth. “Appropriate growth theory” provides a useful lens through which to review Ireland’s growth policy and performance as a “close-to-frontier” economy and this underlines the importance of further strengthening and rationalising innovation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 87-112.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:45:y:2014:i:1:p:87-112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esr.ie/article/view/109/77
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    2. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    3. Kostial, Kristina & Gropp, Reint, 2000. "The disappearing tax base: is foreign direct investment eroding corporate income taxes?," Working Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(4), pages 1351-1408.
    5. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    6. Jens Høj, 2007. "Competition Law and Policy Indicators for the OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 568, OECD Publishing.
    7. Sebastian Barnes & Romain Bouis & Philippe Briard & Sean Dougherty & Mehmet Eris, 2013. "The GDP Impact of Reform: A Simple Simulation Framework," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 834, OECD Publishing.
    8. Frances Ruane & Iulia Siedschlag & Gavin Murphy, 2014. "Globalization and Ireland’s Export Performance," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Louis Brennan (ed.), Enacting Globalization, chapter 19, pages 205-216, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Barry, Frank, 2004. "Export-platform foreign direct investment: the Irish experience," EIB Papers 6/2004, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    10. Brendan M. Walsh, 2004. "The transformation of the Irish labour market : 1980-2003," Working Papers 200412, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    11. Peter J. Buckley & Frances Ruane, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland: Policy Implications for Emerging Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1611-1628, November.
    12. Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810, July.
    13. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    14. Crafts, Nicholas, 2013. "Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 224, pages 14-28, May.
    15. John Romalis, 2007. "Capital Taxes, Trade Costs, and the Irish Miracle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 459-469, 04-05.
    16. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez, 2012. "ICT demand behaviour: an international comparison," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 397-410, June.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    18. Aaron Mehrotra & Timo Välilä, 2006. "Public Investment in Europe: Evolution and Determinants in perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 443-471, December.
    19. Adele Bergin & Ide Kearney, 2004. "Human Capital, The Labour Market and Productivity Growth in Ireland," Papers WP158, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Lane, Philip R., 2009. "A New Fiscal Strategy for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 233-253.
    21. Enrico Alemani & Caroline Klein & Isabell Koske & Cristiana Vitale & Isabelle Wanner, 2013. "New Indicators of Competition Law and Policy in 2013 for OECD and non-OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1104, OECD Publishing.
    22. Whelan, Karl, 2014. "Ireland’s Economic Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 424-440.
    23. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    24. Gorecki, Paul K., 2012. "Competition Policy in Ireland: A Good Recession?," Papers WP427, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    25. Kamps, Christophe, 2005. "Is there a lack of public capital in the European Union?," EIB Papers 3/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    26. Frank Barry & Adele Bergin, 2012. "Inward Investment and Irish Exports over the Recession and Beyond," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(10), pages 1291-1304, October.
    27. Frances Ruane & Ali Uğur, 2005. "Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers in Irish manufacturing industry: evidence from plant level panel data," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-66.
    28. David Haugh, 2013. "From Bricks to Brains: Increasing the Contribution of Knowledge-based Capital to Growth in Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1094, OECD Publishing.
    29. Paul K. Gorecki, 2012. "Competition Policy in Ireland's Recession," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(4), pages 597-629.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank Barry & Adele Bergin, 2019. "Export Structure, FDI and the Rapidity of Ireland’s Recovery from Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 707-724.
    2. Duffy, David & Dwyer, Hannah, 2015. "FDI and the Availability of Dublin Office Space," Research Notes RN2015/3/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Western Europe’s Growth Prospects: an Historical Perspective," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 71, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Creating Competitive Advantage: Policy Lessons from History," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 91, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Paolo Buccirossi & Lorenzo Ciari & Tomaso Duso & Giancarlo Spagnolo & Cristiana Vitale, 2013. "Competition Policy and Productivity Growth: An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1324-1336, October.
    4. Crafts, Nicholas, 2008. "The Celtic Tiger In Historical And International Perspective," Economic Research Papers 269878, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 255-282, June.
    7. Frank Barry & Adele Bergin, 2019. "Export Structure, FDI and the Rapidity of Ireland’s Recovery from Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 707-724.
    8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2013. "Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 224, pages 14-28, May.
    9. Goñi, Edwin & Maloney, William F., 2017. "Why don’t poor countries do R&D? Varying rates of factor returns across the development process," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 126-147.
    10. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    11. Florent Silve & Alexander Plekhanov, 2018. "Institutions, innovation and growth : Evidence from industry data," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(3), pages 335-362, July.
    12. Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2014. "Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-119.
    13. Niclas Berggren & Mikael Elinder, 2012. "Is tolerance good or bad for growth?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 283-308, January.
    14. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.
    15. Girma, Sourafel & Görg, Holger & Strobl, Eric & Walsh, Frank, 2008. "Creating jobs through public subsidies: An empirical analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1179-1199, December.
    16. Olga Stoddard & Ilan Noy, 2015. "Fire-sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crises on Foreign Direct Investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 387-399, May.
    17. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    18. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    19. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Cristina JUDE & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2013. "Growth Effect of FDI in Developing Economies: the Role of Institutional Quality," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2251, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:45:y:2014:i:1:p:87-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Lawless (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.