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Diffusion des TIC et croissance potentielle

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert Cette

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Jacques Mairesse

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Yusuf Kocoglu

    () (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

Abstract

The development and spread of information and communication technologies (ICTs) fuelled by the very rapid and steady improvement in their performance, lead to a sustained increase in productivity gains. These productivity gains are likely to increase the potential output growth, in the medium to long-term, via capital deepening effects and total factor productivity (TFP) gains, and, in the short to medium-term, via the lagged adjustment of wages to productivity. However, the empirical assessment of these two types of impacts, on potential output growth, as compared with an extreme and hypothetical situation in which there would be no development of ICT, remains obviously very tentative. Nevertheless, the orders of magnitude of the medium to long-term impacts that we find are very significant: the annual potential output growth could be boosted by roughly two percentage points in the United States and one point in France. But we cannot ascertain any empirical evidence to support the existence of significant short to medium-term effects.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2004. "Diffusion des TIC et croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-01297951, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01297951
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-tln.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01297951
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yussuf Kocoglu, 2000. "La mesure de l'investissement en technologies de l'information et de la communication : quelques considérations méthodologiques," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 339(1), pages 73-91.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters,in: The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Nicholas Oulton, 2002. "ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 363-379.
    4. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 2002. "Technology and Economic Performance in the American Economy," NBER Working Papers 8771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Christopher J. Gust & Jaime R. Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 665-681.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    9. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    10. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
    11. Dirk Pilat & Frank C. Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD Publishing.
    12. Robert E. Litan & Alice M. Rivlin, 2001. "Projecting the Economic Impact of the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 313-317, May.
    13. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Recuero Virto, Laura & Bacache, Maya, 2009. "TIC et croissance économique
      [ICT and economic growth]
      ," MPRA Paper 28254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    2. Gilbert Cette & Yusuf Kocoglu & Jacques Mairesse, 2009. "Productivity Growth and Levels in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 15577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    TIC;

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