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Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy

In: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?

Author

Listed:
  • Mustapha Baghli

    (Banque de France)

  • Christophe Cahn

    (Banque de France)

  • Jean-Pierre Villetelle

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

Summary This paper discusses the supply conditions for economic growth in terms of potential GDP estimated by the production function approach for France, Germany and Italy. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we keep a consistent framework as regards national accounts institutional sectors. Second, after defining Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the so-called productive sector from the Solow residual, we specify it in a general framework for the three countries as a function of a time trend corrected for the effects of the age of equipments and the capacity utilisation rate (CUR). This framework allows to distinguish temporal considerations: in the medium to long term, the variables that could generate short to medium term fluctuations in potential output growth are assumed to be stable at a structural level. This implies modifications of the functional specifications related to the time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustapha Baghli & Christophe Cahn & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 161-183, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-32611-3_9
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-32611-1_9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Usher, Dan (ed.), 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226843001, December.
    4. Gilbert Cette & Daniel Szpiro, 1989. "Une interprétation du ralentissement de la productivité industrielle au moment du second choc pétrolier," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 87(1), pages 33-42.
    5. Dan Usher, 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ushe80-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2010. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Public Capital: Evidence from Regional Italian Data," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 69(1), pages 29-66, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential growth; production function; total factor productivity; age of equipments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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