IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/218870.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population size and the size of government

Author

Listed:
  • Krieger, Tim
  • Meierrieks, Daniel

Abstract

We examine the effect of population size on government size for a panel of 130 countries for the period between 1970 and 2014. We show that previous analyses of the nexus between population size and government size are incorrectly specified and fail to consider the influence of cross-sectional dependence, non-stationarity and cointegration. Using a panel time-series approach that adequately accounts for these issues, we find that population size has a positive long-run effect on government size. This finding suggests that effects of population size that increase government size (primarily due to the costs of heterogeneity, congestion, crime and conflict) dominate effects that reduce government size (primarily due to scale economies).

Suggested Citation

  • Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2020. "Population size and the size of government," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61, pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:218870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/218870/1/Full-text-article-Krieger-et-al-Population-size-and.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Baltagi, Badi H., 1981. "Pooling : An experimental study of alternative testing and estimation procedures in a two-way error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 21-49, September.
    4. Corneo, Giacomo & Gruner, Hans Peter, 2002. "Individual preferences for political redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 83-107, January.
    5. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    6. Shelton, Cameron A., 2007. "The size and composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2230-2260, December.
    7. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "What causes terrorism?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 3-27, April.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    9. Christian Bjørnskov & Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2007. "The bigger the better? Evidence of the effect of government size on life satisfaction around the world," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 267-292, March.
    10. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    11. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    12. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    13. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    15. Dennis Mueller & Peter Murrell, 1986. "Interest groups and the size of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 125-145, January.
    16. Peltzman, Sam, 1980. "The Growth of Government," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(2), pages 209-287, October.
    17. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, December.
    18. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    19. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    20. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    21. Peter Murrell, 1984. "An examination of the factors affecting the formation of interest groups in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 151-171, January.
    22. Alberto Alesina, 2002. "The Size of Countries: Does it Matter?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1975, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    23. Randall Holcombe, 2005. "Government growth in the twenty-first century," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 95-114, July.
    24. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    25. Rose, Andrew K., 2006. "Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 482-507, December.
    26. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    28. Markus Brückner, 2010. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 535-550, May.
    29. Rhys Andrews & George A. Boyne, 2009. "Size, Structure and Administrative Overheads: An Empirical Analysis of English Local Authorities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(4), pages 739-759, April.
    30. Peltzman, Sam, 1980. "The Growth of Government," Working Papers 1, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    31. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    32. Ram, Rati, 2009. "Openness, country size, and government size: Additional evidence from a large cross-country panel," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 213-218, February.
    33. Elisa Cavatorta & Ron P. Smith, 2017. "Factor Models in Panels with Cross-sectional Dependence: An Application to the Extended SIPRI Military Expenditure Data," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 437-456, July.
    34. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2008. "Polarization, Fractionalization and Conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 163-182, March.
    35. Oakland, William H., 1972. "Congestion, public goods and welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 339-357, November.
    36. Joakim Westerlund, 2005. "New Simple Tests for Panel Cointegration," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 297-316.
    37. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    38. Dar, Atul A. & AmirKhalkhali, Sal, 2002. "Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 679-692, November.
    39. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    40. Benarroch, Michael & Pandey, Manish, 2008. "Trade openness and government size," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 157-159, December.
    41. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    42. Zeynep Taydas & Dursun Peksen, 2012. "Can states buy peace? Social welfare spending and civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(2), pages 273-287, March.
    43. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
    44. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    45. Andreas Bergh & Magnus Henrekson, 2011. "Government Size And Growth: A Survey And Interpretation Of The Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 872-897, December.
    46. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    47. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    48. MacDonald, Ronald & Kearney, Colm, 1987. "On the specification of granger-causality tests using the cointegration methodology," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-153.
    49. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
    50. Andrew K. Rose, 2006. "Size Really Doesn't Matter: In Search of a National Scale Effect," NBER Working Papers 12191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Alena Kimakova, 2009. "Government size and openness revisited: the case of financial globalization," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 394-406, August.
    52. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 902-939, December.
    53. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    54. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447, December.
    55. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    56. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    57. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    58. Alberto Alesina, 2003. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture: The Size of Countries: Does it Matter?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 301-316, 04/05.
    59. Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2015. "Trade openness and bigger governments: The role of country size revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-63.
    60. O'Reilly, Colin & Powell, Benjamin, 2015. "War and the growth of government," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 31-41.
    61. Suzanna De Boef & Luke Keele, 2008. "Taking Time Seriously," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 184-200, January.
    62. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    63. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    64. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
    65. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2007. "General-to-specific or specific-to-general modelling? An opinion on current econometric terminology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 319-324, January.
    66. Sanz, Ismael & Velazquez, Francisco J., 2007. "The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 917-931, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rajeev K. Goel & Ummad Mazhar & Rati Ram, 2022. "Dimensions of size and corruption perceptions versus corruption experiences by firms in emerging economies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 374-396, April.
    2. Kevin Williams, 2021. "Does national income mediate the relationship between trade and government size?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3029-3057, December.
    3. Abel François & Nicolas Lagios & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2023. "Jurisdiction size and perceived corruption," Working Papers CEB 23-003, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Fiorini, Luciana C. & Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "The Effect of Community Size on Electoral Preferences: Evidence From Post-WWII Southern Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 13724, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "The Long-run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 462-487, February.
    3. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2023. "Global warming and urbanization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1187-1223, July.
    4. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    5. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2020. "A global empirical re-assessment of the Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Chletsos Michael & Roupakias Stelios, 2020. "The effect of military spending on income inequality: evidence from NATO countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1305-1337, March.
    7. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2017. "Is There an Investment Motive Behind Remittances? Evidence From Panel Cointegration," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 63-82, January-M.
    8. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "Refugee Immigration and Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 390-414, July.
    9. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    10. Herzer, Dierk, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity and the Trade-Income Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 194-211.
    11. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Income inequality and health: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-56.
    12. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    13. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2013. "Do Migrant Remittances Complement Domestic Investment? New Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1308, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    14. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "Unions and income inequality: a heterogenous cointegration and causality analysis," Working Paper 146/2014, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    15. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    16. Abdelaziz Boukhelkhal, 2022. "Energy use, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Africa: does the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis exist? New evidence from heterogeneous panel under cross-sectional dependence," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 13083-13110, November.
    17. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    18. Gazi Hassan & Arusha Cooray & Mark Holmes, 2017. "The effect of female and male health on economic growth: cross-country evidence within a production function framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 659-689, March.
    19. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    20. Charalampos Agiropoulos & Michael L. Polemis & Michael Siopsis & Sotiris Karkalakos, 2022. "Revisiting the finance‐growth nexus: A socioeconomic approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2762-2783, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    government size; population size; non-stationarity; cross-sectional dependence; panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:218870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.