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Does the Composition of Government Expenditure Matter for Long-run GDP Levels?

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  • Gemmell, Norman
  • Kneller, Richard
  • Sanz, Ismael

Abstract

We examine the long-run GDP impacts of changes in total government expenditure and in the shares of different spending categories for a sample of OECD countries since the 1970s, taking account of methods of financing expenditure changes and possible endogenous relationships. We provide more systematic empirical evidence than available hitherto for OECD countries. Our results provide strong evidence that reallocating total spending towards infrastructure and education would be positive for long-run income levels. Increasing the share of social welfare spending (and away from all others pro-rata) may be associated with, at most, modestly lower long-run GDP levels.

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  • Gemmell, Norman & Kneller, Richard & Sanz, Ismael, 2014. "Does the Composition of Government Expenditure Matter for Long-run GDP Levels?," Working Paper Series 3516, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:3516
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifodre:v:25:y:2018:i:03:p:14-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2016. "The Positive Effect of Public Investment on Potential Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1347, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jean-Marc Fournier & Åsa Johansson, 2016. "The Effect of the Size and the Mix of Public Spending on Growth and Inequality," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1344, OECD Publishing.
    4. Morten Endrikat, 2017. "Natural resource rents, autocracy and the composition of government spending," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201727, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. George Economides & Hyun Park & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stelios Sakkas, 2015. "On the Composition of Public Spending and Taxes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5510, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. repec:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:429-436 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Giorgio d’Agostino & J. Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2017. "Does Military Spending Matter for Long-run Growth?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 429-436, July.
    8. Julien Malizard, 2016. "Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 38-44, October.
    9. Åsa Johansson, 2016. "Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1346, OECD Publishing.
    10. Deockhyun Ryu, 2015. "Fiscal Spending And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 91-105, December.
    11. Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2018. "The deterioration of the public spending mix during the global financial crisis: Insights from new indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1465, OECD Publishing.

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    Keywords

    Government expenditure composition; Fiscal policy; GDP;

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