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When Keynes Goes to Brussels: A New Fiscal Rule for the EMU?

Author

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  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE-SciencesPo, Paris and LUISS School of European Political Economy, Rome)

Abstract

The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) institutions are consistent with a New Consensus that emerged in the 1980s, limiting the role for macroeconomic policy to short term stabilizations by means of rules. I will argue that the policy inertia induced by the Consensus may have played a role in the disappointing performance of EMU economies even before the crisis. The crisis of the Consensus, and the debate on secular stagnation, proved that Keynesian and possibly persistent excesses of savings over investment may hamper growth. This has put fiscal policy back to the center of the scene, and given the General Theory, at eighty, a second youth. I will argue therefore that the EMU fiscal rule should be amended to allow semi-permanent negative government savings. I will finally argue that a modified Golden Rule may serve this objective, and allow EU-wide policy coordination. This seems the only reasonable reform with some chances of being adopted by the EU divided policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "When Keynes Goes to Brussels: A New Fiscal Rule for the EMU?," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 51(2), pages 131-157, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fle:journl:v:51:y:2017:i:2:p:131-157
    DOI: 10.26331/1019
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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Francesco Vona, 2019. "Italy : escaping the high-debt and low-growth trap," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Willi Semmler & Brigitte Young, 2017. "Re-Booting Europe: What kind of Fiscal Union - What kind of Social Union?," Working Papers 1713, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Here to Stay? The Return of Fiscal Policy and Challenges for the EU Governance," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 13(1-2).
    4. Maria Savona, 2018. "Industrial policy for a Europeanindustrial renaissance. A few reflections," SPRU Working Paper Series 2018-07, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Massimo Amato & Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Squaring the circle: How to guarantee fiscal space and debt sustainability with a European Debt Agency," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03554212, HAL.
    6. Francesco Saraceno, 2021. "Europe After COVID-19: A New Role for German Leadership?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(2), pages 65-69, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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