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Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

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  • Peter Claeys

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona.)

Abstract

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The results overturn some widely held beliefs on fiscal policy effects. The main finding is that expansionary fiscal policy has contractionary effects on output and inflation. Ricardian effects may dominate when fiscal expansions are expected to be adjusted by future tax rises or spending cuts. The evidence supports RBC models with distortionary taxation. We can discard some alternative interpretations that are based on monetary policy reactions or supply-side effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Claeys, 2007. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," IREA Working Papers 200715, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:200715
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    3. Claeys, Peter & Maravalle, Alessandro, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability: Does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    4. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Alani, Jimmy, 2020. "Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint: Debts and Economic Growth in Ethiopia, 1990–2018," MPRA Paper 103180, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; sustainability; spending; taxes; common trends; SVAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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