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Fiscal Sustainability in the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Gordon L. Brady

    (University of North Carolina)

  • Cosimo Magazzino

    (Roma Tre University)

Abstract

We assessed the sustainability of fiscal policy in the 28 European Union countries over the 1980-2015 years. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence showed that government revenues, expenditures, the primary balance, and debt were non-stationary series. However, cointegration tests reveled that a long-run relationship exists between government revenues and expenditures as well as between government primary deficit and debt. The results of causality tests were in line with the neutrality hypothesis: government revenues do not cause the expenditures, and vice versa. Furthermore, mixture models analyses indicated the presence of three homogeneous clusters, one of which included Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS), whose coefficient of 0.68 indicates the absence of sustainability, since government expenditures grow faster than revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Fiscal Sustainability in the EU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 297-311, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:46:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11293-018-9588-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-018-9588-4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Wei Fan & Hao Zheng, 2021. "Research on Spatial Correlation Characteristics and Their Spatial Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Risks in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2022. "The Italian fiscal sustainability in a long-run perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    5. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Olalekan Bashir Aworinde, 2021. "Fiscal and External Deficits Nexus in GIIPS Countries: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Causality Tests," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 171-184, August.
    6. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 106-123.
    7. José Alves, 2021. "The Sinful Side of Taxation: Is it Possible to Satisfy the Government Hunger for Revenues While Promoting Economic Growth?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 237(2), pages 85-109, June.
    8. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    9. Gozde Es POLAT & Onur POLAT, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability analysis in EU countries: a dynamic macro-panel approach," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 219-241, June.
    10. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2019. "The Fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 129-147.
    11. Yu HSING, 2019. "Does the Mundell-Fleming Model apply to Poland?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 265-272, Winter.

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