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Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Afonso

    (BCE - Banque Centrale Européenne - BCE)

  • Florence Huart

    (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • João Tovar Jalles
  • Piotr Stanek

    (Cracow University of Economics)

Abstract

We assess the sustainability of external imbalances for EU countries using panel stationarity tests of Current Account (CA) balance-to-GDP ratios and panel cointegration of exports and imports of goods and services, for the period 1970Q1–2015Q4. We find that: i) the country panel is non-stationary; ii) cross-sectional dependence plays an important role; iii) there is non-stationarity of the CA, imports, and exports with cross-sectional panel dependence and multiple structural breaks; iv) however, there is a stable long-run relationship between exports and imports in the panel. Hence, trade imbalances can be less unsustainable but this is not sufficient to make current account imbalances sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Post-Print hal-02499351, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02499351
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-019-00168-x
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Fiscal and External Sustainability: a Two-Step Time-varying Granger Causality Assessment," Working Papers REM 2025/0369, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Olufemi G. Onatunji, 2023. "Sustainability of current account deficits in Nigeria: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Hegerty Scott W., 2022. "Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 96-118, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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