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Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility

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  • Hegerty Scott W.

    (Department of Economics, College of Arts and Sciences, Northeastern Illinois University, USA)

Abstract

Aim/purpose – In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been “priced into” exchange rates or increased these rates’ volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Hegerty Scott W., 2022. "Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 96-118, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:44:y:2022:i:1:p:96-118:n:7
    DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade flows; Baltics; time series; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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