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Wagner's Law and Peacock and Wiseman's Displacement Effect in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Study

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  • Cosimo Magazzino

    (Department of Political Sciences, Roma Tre University, Italian Economic Association (SIE); Royal Economic Society, Italy,)

  • Lorenzo Giolli

    (eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy)

  • Marco Mele

    (Universit degli Studi Internazionali di Roma, Italy.)

Abstract

Wagner's Law is the fi rst model of public expenditure in the history of public fi nance. It suggests that during the process of economic development the share of public spending in national income tends to expand (Wagner, 1883). Nevertheless, Peacock and Scott in 2000 wrote a paper entitled The curious attraction of Wagner's law, explaining the reasons for why this (apparently) outworn theory is still studied by modern economists. On the other hand, Keynes (1936) considered public spending as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to infl uence growth. Moreover, Peacock and Wiseman (1961) presented the displacement effect, according to which during times of war tax rates are increased to generate more revenues, sustaining the increase in defense spending. While Peacock and Wiseman (1979) surveys the literature on public expenditure growth. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income in European Union countries, for the period 1980-2013, using panel data methodologies. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is discussed. Then, panel data tests on stationarity, cross-dependence, cointegration, and causality are shown. Finally, some notes on policy implications conclude the paper

Suggested Citation

  • Cosimo Magazzino & Lorenzo Giolli & Marco Mele, 2015. "Wagner's Law and Peacock and Wiseman's Displacement Effect in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 812-819.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2015-03-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Henrique Martins Prado & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2020. "Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An analysis of state government finances in Brazil," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 628-643, May.
    2. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Fiscal Sustainability in the EU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 297-311, September.
    3. Manuel Jaén-García, 2021. "Displacement Effect and Ratchet Effect: Testing of Two Alternative Hypotheses," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    4. Paparas, Dimitrios & Stoian, Andreea, 2016. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015," MPRA Paper 74378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hongbo Liu & Shuanglu Liang, 2019. "The Nexus between Energy Consumption, Biodiversity, and Economic Growth in Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC): Evidence from Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-15, September.
    6. Polterovich, Victor, 2021. "Коллаборативные Иерархии [Collaborative Hierarchies]," MPRA Paper 106944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Manuel Jaén-García, 2018. "Wagner’s Law: A Revision and a New Empirical Estimation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 13-35, March.
    8. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2018. "An attempt to restore Wagner’s law of increasing state activity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1583, December.
    9. Samson Adeniyi Aladejare, 2022. "Are public spending determinants significant in per capita budget spending decisions in Nigeria?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 192-206, January.
    10. Iyabo A. Olanrele, 2020. "Dynamic Effect of Public Expenditure on Oil Producing Economy: An Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 64-73.
    11. Wahyudi Wahyudi, 2020. "The Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 84-88.
    12. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    13. Suzana Balaban & Dejan Živkov, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in Transition Economies: A Multivariate Approach," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 236(1), pages 105-131, March.
    14. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    15. Gomez Segura, Camilo Fabiam & Cuellar Adames, Andres David & Martínez Alvarado, Laura Camila, 2023. "Incidencia del gasto público en el crecimiento económico de los países suramericanos, 1995-2018," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 42(75), pages 111-128, January.
    16. Livio Di Matteo & Fraser Summerfield, 2018. "The Shifting Scully Curve: International Evidence from 1870 to 2013," Working Paper series 18-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Peter E. Ayunku & Dumani Markjackson, 2020. "Impact of External Debt on Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve Portfolios," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7.
    18. Amadi Kelvin Chijioke & Alolote Ibim Amadi, 2020. "Government Expenditure on Infrastructure as a Driver for Economic Growth in Nigeria," Journal of International Business Research and Marketing, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 20-26, January.
    19. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    20. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2021. "A supply-demand model of public sector size," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    21. Auteri, Monica & Mele, Marco & Ruble, Isabella & Magazzino, Cosimo, 2024. "The double sustainability: The link between government debt and renewable energy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    22. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2019. "A supply-demand model of the size of public sector and Wagner's law," MPRA Paper 94973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Stoyan Tanchev, 2021. "Economic growth and government expenditure – evidence of Wagner’s Law in some EU countries," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 72-87.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's Law; Public Expenditure; Gross Domestic Product; Economic and Monetary Union; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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