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Fiscal sustainability in the GCC countries

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  • Cosimo Magazzino

    (Roma Tre University)

Abstract

We explore the fiscal sustainability in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 1990–2017. Panel unit root tests in presence of cross-sectional dependence for government revenues, expenditures, the primary balance, and debt reach mixed results. However, cointegration tests reveal that a long-run relationship exists between government revenues and expenditures, while the relationship between government primary deficit and debt is controversial. Panel estimates of the cointegrating relationship indicate that Saudi Arabia is in a condition of risk, having to keep the debt under control. Yet, Bahrain and Qatar seem to face the toughest challenges. The results of causality tests support the hypothesis of fiscal synchronization, implying that the GCC governments take decisions on their revenues and expenditures simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosimo Magazzino, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in the GCC countries," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 389-408, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:16:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s42495-022-00082-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s42495-022-00082-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2022. "The Italian fiscal sustainability in a long-run perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    2. Eric Amoo Bondzie & Mark Kojo Armah, 2022. "A DSGE model of fiscal stabilizers and informality in Sub-Sahara Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2137985-213, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; Government expenditures; Revenues; Primary balance; Government debt; GCC countries; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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