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The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States

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  • Alberto Alesina

Abstract

Current surpluses in the U.S. have been achieved by a combination of a strong economy, low interest rates, and sharp cuts in defense spending. These surpluses follow a period (the 1980s) of rather exceptional budget deficit. This paper investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces may generate alternative fiscal scenarios for the U.S. in the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 3-19, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:3-19
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.14.3.3
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.14.3.3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    3. Germinal G. Van, 2022. "The Theory of Efficient Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 68-91.
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    5. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alwasiak, Stanislaw & Lewandowska-Kalina, Monika & Kalina, Lech & Kowalewski, Oskar & Mozdzen, Michal & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2013. "What Determines State Capture in Poland?," MPRA Paper 47057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Duffy, David & Hore, Jonathan & MacCoille, Conall & McCoy, Daniel, 2001. "Budget 2002: Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Stance," Papers BP2002/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    10. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
    11. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 7693, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    12. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    13. Drakopoulos, Stavros A., 2010. "Economic Policies, Socieconomic Factors and Overall Health: A Short Review," MPRA Paper 21553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Corinne Prost & Cédric Audenis, 2003. "Finances publiques et cycle économique : une autre approche," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 157(1), pages 1-12.
    15. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Ionuţ-Cătălin Croitoru, 2012. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy. Case Of Romania," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(18), pages 13-22, April.
    18. Ondrej Schneider, 2019. "Partisan Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 8014, CESifo.
    19. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2018/182, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Schmidt Christoph M. & Schmidt Torsten, 2017. "Das Wie entscheidet: Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll verwenden," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 37-49, April.
    21. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
    22. Xavier Debrun & Radhicka Kapoor, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: New Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 48(2), pages 69-101, Diciembre.
    23. Hideaki Tanaka, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Targets and Public Expenditure Management: Enthusiasm in the 1990's and its Aftermath," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 346, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Stoian, Andreea, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance," Working Papers 27/2012, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    25. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers 201122, CERDI.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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