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Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece

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Listed author(s):
  • Makrydakis, S.
  • Tzavalis, E.
  • Balfoussias, A.

Abstract

This paper questions the widespead practice of assessing the hypothesis of long-run fiscal policy sustainability by means of conventional unit-root tests that do not allow for the possible impact of regime shifts. Using the Greek economy as a model case, the Zivot- Andrews squential integrability testing procedure which allows for the endogenous determination of possible regime changes is deployed to this end.

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Paper provided by Exeter University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 9601.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:9601
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4PU

Phone: (01392) 263218
Fax: (01392) 263242
Web page: http://business-school.exeter.ac.uk/about/departments/economics/

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Keywords: FISCAL POLICY; DEBT; UNIT ROOTS; ECONOMIC POLICY;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
  • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  1. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  2. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  5. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
  6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  7. Lockwood, B. & Philippopoulos, A., 1997. "Politics and Fiscal Policy," DEOS Working Papers 97-04, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  8. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
  9. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
  10. Handa, Jagdish & Ma, Barry K., 1989. "Four tests for the random walk hypothesis : Power versus robustness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 141-145.
  11. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
  12. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1988. "Long-run limits on the US Federal debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-262.
  13. Kiviet, Jan F & Phillips, Garry D A, 1992. "Exact Similar Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 349-367, August.
  14. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
  15. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
  16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  17. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
  18. Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
  19. W.H. Buiter & U Patel, 1995. "Budgetary Aspects of Stabilization and Strucutral Adjustment in India: The Painful Road to a Sustainable Fiscal-Financial-Monetary Plan," CEP Discussion Papers dp0247, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
  21. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
  22. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
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Cited by:

  1. Efthymios Tsionas, 2003. "Inflation and Productivity in Europe: An Empirical Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 39-62, March.
  2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
  3. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
  4. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Testing Stationarity of Budgetary Position in Developing Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 77-87, April.
  5. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  6. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA.
  7. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2007. "The growth effects of fiscal policy in Greece 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 157-175, April.
  9. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "P-STAR analysis in a converging economy: the case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-60, January.
  10. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, March.
  11. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2001. "Fiscal policy and politics: theory and evidence from Greece 1960-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-268, April.
  12. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
  13. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
  14. Georgios P. Kouretas & Prodromos Vlamis, 2010. "The Greek Crisis: Causes and Implications," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 391-404, December.

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