Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints
This paper examines sustainability of the fiscal stances of South Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa and Turkey. Using the usual intertemporal borrowing constraint, we have tested for a long-run relationship between revenue and expenditure plus interest payments. In our empirical analysis of the sustainability of fiscal stances, cointegration approaches have been used. Empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run or equilibrium relationship among variables for South Korea and Turkey. The cointegration results suggest that the Turkish and South Korean fiscal stances satisfy the weak sustainability condition. In the case of Mexico, the Philippines and South Africa cointegration results suggest that in these countries the fiscal stance is not sustainable (and violates their intertemporal budget constraints) in the long run.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995.
"Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
- Ahmed, S. & Rogers, J.H., 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?," Papers 5-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," International Finance Discussion Papers 494, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William J. Crowder, 1997. "The U.S. Intertemporal Budget Constraint: Restoring Equilibrium Through Increased Revenues or Decreased Spending?," Macroeconomics 9702002, EconWPA, revised 17 Feb 1997.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-118, January.
- Haug, A.A., 1993. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Papers 93-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
- David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Economics Working Papers eco98/2, European University Institute.
- James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
- Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael R., 1997. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)