IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sur/surrec/0309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: a Markov Switching Cointegration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Vasco Gabriel

    (University of Surrey)

  • Pataaree Sangduan

    (Bureau of the Budget, Thailand)

Abstract

We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fi?scal sustainability. This method allows us to simultaneously: 1) test for cointegration in the presence of signifi?cant ?fiscal policy changes; 2) assess the type of fi?scal regime (whether strongly/weakly sustainable or unsustainable) that a country experienced at a given period and 3) analyse the timing of the transition between the estimated regime types. Given its flexibility, our approach enables us to uncover a richer and more complex dynamics in the analysis of fi?scal sustainability, which standard linear cointegration methods fail to capture.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasco Gabriel & Pataaree Sangduan, 2009. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: a Markov Switching Cointegration Approach," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0309, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2009/DP03-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2007. "Volatility in asset prices and long-run wealth effect estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1048-1064, November.
    2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    3. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    4. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
    5. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962.
    6. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    7. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak, 2008. "Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 823-830.
    8. Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-118, January.
    9. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 2000. "Testing for stationarity-ergodicity and for comovements between nonlinear discrete time Markov processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 39-73, May.
    10. Krolzig, H., 1996. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    12. Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-321.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    14. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    15. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
    16. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    17. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    18. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    19. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    20. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    23. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    24. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
    25. James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
    26. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-168, March-Apr.
    27. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Przemyslaw Wlodarczyk, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability of the Visegrad Group countries in the aftermath of global economic crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    2. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Anton Velinov, 2014. "Assessing the Sustainability of Government Debt: On the Different States of the Debt/GDP Process," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1359, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    5. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    7. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee & Li-Ju Tsai & Te-Chung Hu, 2016. "The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1085-1113, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Silika Prohl, 2008. "Sustainability of Swiss Fiscal Policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(I), pages 57-83, March.
    4. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    5. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    6. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    7. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    8. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
    9. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    10. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    12. Thanh Dat Nguyen & Sandy Suardi & Chew Lian Chua, 2017. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 201-215, January.
    13. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1465, European Central Bank.
    15. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2008. "US deficit sustainability revisited: a multiple structural change approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1609-1613.
    16. Andrea Silvestrini, 2010. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 241-274, August.
    17. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the Sustainability of Government Deficits: Some Long-Term Evidence for Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 263-281, November.
    18. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    19. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    20. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Theodore Simos, 2013. "A new test for deficit sustainability and its application to US data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 61-79, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ioannis Lazopoulos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.