Assessing fiscal sustainability subject to policy changes: a Markov switching cointegration approach
We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fi?scal sustainability. This method allows us to simultaneously: 1) test for cointegration in the presence of signifi?cant ?fiscal policy changes; 2) assess the type of fi?scal regime (whether strongly/weakly sustainable or unsustainable) that a country experienced at a given period and 3) analyse the timing of the transition between the estimated regime types. Given its flexibility, our approach enables us to uncover a richer and more complex dynamics in the analysis of fi?scal sustainability, which standard linear cointegration methods fail to capture.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 41 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992.
"An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
- Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2007. "Volatility in asset prices and long-run wealth effect estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1048-1064, November.
- Haug, A.A., 1993.
"Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?,"
93-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-18, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak, 2008. "Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 823-830.
- James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985.
"On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing,"
NBER Working Papers
1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
- Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-321.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995.
"Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
- Ahmed, S. & Rogers, J.H., 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?," Papers 5-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," International Finance Discussion Papers 494, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- H. Krolzig, 1996.
"Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1113, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000.
"US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Martin, G.M., 1998. "U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Wilcox, David W, 1989.
"The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
- David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 2002.
"Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
- Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962.
- Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 2000.
"Testing for stationarity-ergodicity and for comovements between nonlinear discrete time Markov processes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 39-73, May.
- Corradi, V. & Swanson, N. & White, H., 1996. "Testing for Stationarity-Ergodicity and for Comovements Between Nonlinear Discrete Time Markov Processes," Papers 4-96-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
- Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
- James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
- Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007.
"Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Regime Changes And The Sustainability Of Fiscal Imbalance In East Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504001, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:41:y:2011:i:2:p:371-385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.