A new test for deficit sustainability and its application to US data
In this paper, we define deficit sustainability by requiring formally that both the discounted debt vanish asymptotically and the undiscounted debt be bounded. Thus, a new necessary condition and a new testing procedure emerge. We propose a new test statistic and prove that its limiting distribution is standard normal, N(0, 1). Its finite- sample distribution differs from N(0, 1), however, mainly because it has fat tails, so we derive empirical critical values using simulations. Using the new test and United States (US) quarterly data, the conclusions of three earlier papers that fail to reject the sustainability of the US budget or current-account deficit are reversed. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haug, Alfred A, 1995.
"Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-18, January.
- Haug, A.A., 1993. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Papers 93-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991.
"Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Higher-order approximations for frequency domain time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 297-336, June.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1982.
"Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
0905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-35, February.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Martin, G.M., 1998.
"U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
- Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
RCER Working Papers
335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Jyh-lin, Wu & Fountas, Stilianos & Show-lin, Chen, 1996.
"Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-198, August.
- Jyh-lin Wu & Stilianos Fountas & Show-lin Chen, 1996. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Two Industrial Countries," Working Papers 11, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1996.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004.
"Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break,"
04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
- Tom Doan, . "LSUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lee-Strazicich unit root tests with one or more structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00112, Boston College Department of Economics.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2001. "Are current account deficits sustainable?: Evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 219-224, August.
- Tanner, Evan & Liu, Peter, 1994. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 511-18, July.
- Wilcox, David W, 1989.
"The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
- David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
- Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, 09.
- James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:61-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.