IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bap/journl/160305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A "litmus test" of Deficit Sustainability: The Case of the Greek Budget Deficit

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitris Hatzinikolaou

    () (University of Ioannina, Department of Economics, 451 10 Ioannina, GREECE)

Abstract

The paper applies three sustainability tests to the Greek budget deficit, which is known to be unsustainable, and can therefore be used to check the reliability of the three tests. Using three deficit definitions, i.e., in levels, in per capita terms, and in percent of GDP, I find the following results: (1) the unit-root test rejects sustainability only for the last definition; (2) the Hakkio-Rush test does not reject sustainability for any definition; and (3) the Hatzinikolaou-Simos test, which is applicable only for the first two definitions, strongly rejects sustainability, and so it proves to be more reliable, as expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Hatzinikolaou, 2016. "A "litmus test" of Deficit Sustainability: The Case of the Greek Budget Deficit," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 65-73, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:160305
    Note: The author is grateful to two anonymous referees of this Journal for their useful comments and suggestions, which improved this paper significantly. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/ref/ref-article/1923-7529-2016-03-65-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‚ÄźCountry Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
    2. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    5. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    7. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Theodore Simos & Agathi Tsoka, 2013. "Is the US current-account deficit sustainable? The importance of structural breaks in testing sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2817-2827.
    8. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    9. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Theodore Simos, 2013. "A new test for deficit sustainability and its application to US data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 61-79, August.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    12. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    13. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    14. Emmanouil Trachanas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Is the Greek budget deficit sustainable after all? Empirical evidence accounting for regime shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2387-2397, July.
    15. Tanner, Evan & Liu, Peter, 1994. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 511-518, July.
    16. James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; Sustainability tests; Greece;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bap:journl:160305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlson). General contact details of provider: http://www.bapress.ca .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.