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How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?

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  • MARK J. HOLMES

Abstract

The study examines the long-run sustainability of OECD current account balances. For this purpose, tests for current account stationarity and then cointegration between exports and imports are based on recently developed panel data methods that offer increased power over existing time-series techniques. Unlike existing panel studies on this topic, this study utilizes techniques that enable the examination of sustainability for individual panel members. The first stage of the investigation relies on a novel approach to unit root testing whereby tests for stationarity are conducted within a seemingly unrelated regression framework. The second stage involves the estimation of the long-run relationship between exports and imports by a range of recently developed panel data techniques advocated by Pedroni. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries, the results from these techniques suggest that sustainability is present in six countries at most. Also, sustainability is generally a characteristic of the non-Euro countries. These results can be contrasted with existing group mean unit root and cointegration tests that indicate sustainability for the group as a whole. Copyright © 2006 The Author; Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:74:y:2006:i:5:p:626-643
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00514.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2016. "Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1834-1853, November.
    2. Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Mariam CAMARERO & Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Cecilio TAMARIT, "undated". "External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe?," EcoMod2010 259600036, EcoMod.
    3. Chih-kai Chang & Tsangyao Chang, 2012. "Revisiting the sustainability of current account deficit: SPSM using the panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 538-550.
    4. Mark Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "The sustainability of India's current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 219-229.
    5. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1474-1495.
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 190-201.
    7. Ayla Oğuş Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 89-104, March.
    8. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Theodore Simos, 2013. "A new test for deficit sustainability and its application to US data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 61-79, August.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    10. Barbara Pistoresi, 2013. "Italy's current account sustainability:a long run perspective, 1861-2000," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "Current account sustainability in advanced economies," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 1000-1017, October.
    12. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2017. "Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union," Working Papers REM 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Indalecio Perez & Pablo Castellanos & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2013. "Risk premium as an economic policy objective: The Spanish case," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 94-104.
    14. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2016. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 106, European Institute, LSE.
    15. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2007. "The Sustainability of India's current account (1950-2003): Evidence from parametric and non-parametric unit root and cointegration tests," Working Paper series 41_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    17. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 730-740, September.
    18. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2015. "Testing for external sustainability under a monetary integration process. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 343-349.
    19. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    20. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Lau, 2008. "An Empirical Investigation On The Sustainability Of Balancing Item Of Balance Of Payment Accounts For Oic Member Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 31/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    21. repec:ege:journl:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:121-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2013. "Long memory and regime switching properties of current account deficits in the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-87.
    23. repec:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:2:p:5-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    25. repec:rim:rimwps:41-07 is not listed on IDEAS

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