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High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices

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  • Yuko Hashimoto
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

This paper analyzes the co-movement of the exchange rates and the stock prices from the viewpoint of contagion among the eight countries in the region during the period of Asian currency crisis, 1997-1999. Ito and Hashimoto (2002; NBER working paper) proposed a new definition of high-frequency contagion using daily exchange rate data. This paper extends the idea to include the stock market origins that are separately identified for the exchange rate and the stock price. Then contagion is defined not only among the exchange rates and stock prices separately, but also between an exchange rate and a stock price of the same country or of different countries. One of the motivations is the following observation. Hong Kong successfully defended the peg to the U.S. dollar throughout the Asian currency crisis period. However, the Hong Kong stock market was affected by the decline in currencies of neighboring countries most notably in October 1997. We use a friction model and a Tobit model to analyze the impact of a negative shock in one asset price to others. The difference between mildly-affected countries and severely-affected countries is analyzed; categories of large declines in the exchange rates (or stock prices) are made differentiated; and whether the stock prices were increasing or decreasing is distinguished. It is found, among others, that there was, in general the contagion between the exchange rates and stock prices; that the stock prices in Hong Kong were found to suffer from contagious effects from the decline in the Asian currencies; and that Indonesian, Korean and Thai currency depreciation and Hong Kong stock price declines had impacts on other currencies and stock prices in the region during the crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10448 Note: IFM AP
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yan-Leung & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Chris C., 2007. "East Asian equity markets, financial crises, and the Japanese currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 138-152, March.
    2. Turuntseva, M. & Zyamalov, V., 2016. "Stock Markets under the Changing Terms of Trade," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 93-109.
    3. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Extremal dependence in European capital markets," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 275-293, November.
    4. Arfaoui Mongi & Ben Rejeb Aymen, 2015. "Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?," International Journal of Management and Economics, De Gruyter Open, vol. 46(1), pages 72-100, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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