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Contagious Currency Crisis: A Spatial Probit Approach


  • Álvaro A. Novo


We probe the idea that the 1992 currency crisis that affected several European countries was a contagious phenomenon. Using "spatial probit" models, we show that the currency crisis was indeed contagious, with the trade channel favored as the transmission channel. We also test the political channel, but the evidence is hybrid. Contrary to previous work, we find macroeconomic variables to be significant (standard probit is inconsistent and inefficient in the presence of spatial dependence), with poor economic growth playing a significant role. Several European countries had been experiencing poor, even negative, real growth at the time of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro A. Novo, 2003. "Contagious Currency Crisis: A Spatial Probit Approach," Working Papers w200305, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200305

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Loisel, Olivier & Martin, Philippe, 2001. "Coordination, cooperation, contagion and currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 399-419, April.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    5. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    6. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 1998. "Contracting in space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 125-154, July.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
    9. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Amaral & Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2014. "The Spatial Probit Model – An Application to the Study of Banking Crises at the End of the 90’s," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2014_05, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    2. Amaral, Andrea & Abreu, Margarida & Mendes, Victor, 2014. "The spatial Probit model—An application to the study of banking crises at the end of the 1990’s," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 251-260.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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