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Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system

Author

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  • Hernández de Cos, Pablo
  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Koester, Gerrit
  • Moral-Benito, Enrique

Abstract

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early warning systems. Finally we draw policy conclusions for the setting?up and application of a system of early warning indicators for fiscal stress. JEL Classification: E62, E65, E66, H62, H63, F34

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Nickel, Christiane & Koester, Gerrit & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2014. "Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system," Working Paper Series 1712, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141712
    Note: 166869
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems; How Have they Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 2004/052, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    8. Katia Berti & Matteo Salto & Matthieu Lequien, 2012. "An early-detection index of fiscal stress for EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 475, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    2. Jiro Honda & Rene Tapsoba & Ismael Issifou, 2018. "When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals," IMF Working Papers 2018/077, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    4. Martin Bruns & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1454-1478, March.
    5. Csaba Tóth G., 2014. "The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 59(4), pages 511-528.
    6. Stéphanie Pamies Sumner & Katia Berti, 2017. "A Complementary Tool to Monitor Fiscal Stress in European Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 049, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Jarmulska, Barbara, 2020. "Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Working Paper Series 2408, European Central Bank.
    8. Cláudia Braz & João Amador & Lara Wemans & Maria Manuel Campos & Sharmin Sazedj, 2016. "Public debt sustainability:Methodologies and debates in European institutions," Working Papers o201601, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Michele Lanotte & Giacomo Manzelli & Anna Maria Rinaldi & Marco Taboga & Pietro Tommasino, 2016. "Easier said than done? Reforming the prudential treatment of banks’ sovereign exposures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 326, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Tóth G., Csaba, 2017. "A nemzeti költségvetési szabályok elterjedése és hatása Európában [The spread of national fiscal rules and their effect in Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1119-1147.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt management; deficit surplus; fiscal policy; general outlook and conditions; international lending and debt problems; sovereign debt; studies of particular policy episodes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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