IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/rwe111/v10y2019i3p89-98.html

Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tai-Hock Kuek
  • Chin-Hong Puah
  • M. Affendy Arip

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate Malaysia¡¯s vulnerability to a financial crisis. The methodology employed is an extension of the signals approach based on the original work of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). By studying the period from 2000M1 to 2016M9, we construct a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI) to measure the development of vulnerabilities in the Malaysian financial system. Our empirical findings unveil that the causes of crises are multidimensional. Notably, economic slowdown, decline in stock price and weak exports contain good predictive power in assessing financial vulnerability to a crisis. This study highlights the significance of internal and external macroeconomic conditions in determining a country¡¯s vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 89-98, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:rwe111:v:10:y:2019:i:3:p:89-98
    DOI: 10.5430/rwe.v10n3p89
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/rwe/article/view/15739/10184
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/rwe/article/view/15739
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5430/rwe.v10n3p89?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Borrowman & Gennadi Kazakevitch & Lionel Frost, 2017. "How long do households remain in housing affordability stress?," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 869-886, October.
    2. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430, April.
    3. Hong Puah, Chin & Kuek, Tai Hock & Arip, M. Affendy, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(4), October.
    4. Gurnain Pasricha & Tom Roberts & Ian Christensen & Brad Howell, 2013. "Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Autumn), pages 10-19.
    5. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    7. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    8. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 315-330, September.
    11. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    12. Christensen, Ian & Li, Fuchun, 2014. "Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 54-65.
    13. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito & Gerrit B. Koester & Christiane Nickel, 2014. "Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area: A country-specific early warning system," Working Papers 1418, Banco de España.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    16. Aboura, Sofiane & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: An application to France," Kiel Working Papers 1834, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    17. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    18. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430.
    19. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    20. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    21. Shirly Siew-Ling WONG & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR & Venus Khim-Sen LIEW, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 235-248.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Murat AKÇA & Vedat KAYA, 2023. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools on Financial Stability: A NARDL Approach for Turkey," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 63-80, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Puah, Chin & Kuek, Tai Hock & Arip, M. Affendy, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(4), October.
    2. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2019. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 269-299, November.
    3. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 55-73.
    4. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    6. Mohana Rao BALAGA & Puja PADHI, 2017. "Evaluating Indian economy’s vulnerability to currency crisis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 97-114, Autumn.
    7. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    8. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    9. Dao Ha & Phuong Nguyen & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "Early warning systems for currency and systemic banking crises in Vietnam," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 350-375, April.
    10. Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021. "Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
    13. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    14. Martin Bruns & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1454-1478, March.
    15. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ko, Kyunghwan, 2020. "Improving forecast accuracy of financial vulnerability: PLS factor model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 341-355.
    16. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    17. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    18. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.
    19. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2024. "What charge-off rates are predictable by macroeconomic latent factors?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2020. "Cross-border lending and the international transmission of banking crises," Discussion Papers 2020/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:rwe111:v:10:y:2019:i:3:p:89-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gina Perry (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://rwe.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.