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Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Shirly Siew-Ling WONG
  • Chin-Hong PUAH
  • Shazali ABU MANSOR
  • Venus Khim-Sen LIEW

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University Malaysia Sarawak, Malaysia)

Abstract

This study constructs a factor-based model of business cycle identification for the Malaysian economy via the dynamic factor approach. Our central focus is to explore a factor-based business cycle indicator (BCI) that can serve as a good gauge for economic crises. The empirical finding is in harmony with the envisaged objective; the constructed BCI produces satisfactory identification of business cycle turning points and statistically outperforms the national-owned composite leading indicator (CLI) in terms of predictive accuracy and forecasting performance. Therefore, we reckon that the constructed BCI can serve to identify the business climate and foretell approaching economic crises in a timely manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirly Siew-Ling WONG & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR & Venus Khim-Sen LIEW, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 235-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:cys:ecocyb:v:50:y:2016:i:4:p:235-248
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Shazali Abu Mansor & Chin-Hong Puah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chee-Wooi Hooy & Ruhani Ali & S. Ghon Rhee (ed.), Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience, chapter 4, pages 51-60, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Racquel Anak Rowland & Puah Chin Hong & Jerome Kueh Swee Hui & Rossazana Bt Ab Rahim & Shirly Wong Siew Ling, 2018. "Macroeconomic Instability Index and Malaysia Economic Performance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 179-185, March.
    2. Chin-Hong Puah, & Tai-Hock Kuek, & M. Affendy Arip,, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 496-505, October.
    3. Tai-Hock Kuek & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 89-98, December.
    4. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Forecasting Tourism Demand with Composite Indicator Approach for Fiji," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 12-22, December.
    5. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle indicator; dynamic factor model; turning points; forecasting; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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