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A New Composite Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • ASLIHAN ATABEK
  • EVREN ERDOGAN COSAR
  • SAYGIN SAHINÖZ

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to construct a composite leading indicator (CLI) for Turkish economic activity that would crucially provide earlier signals of turning points between economic expansions and slowdowns. First, for this analysis, the index of industrial production is selected as an indicator for economic activity. Second, a group of variables that perform well both in forecasting and in tracking cyclical developments of economic activity is selected from a broad set of economic indicators related to industrial production. While constructing the CLI, a growth cycle approach is used. The resulting cyclical patterns of the series are obtained by eliminating seasonal, irregular, and trend components via TRAMO/SEATS programs and Hodrick-Prescott filter. The selection of the component series is based on theoretical economic significance and their leading performance at cyclical turning points. From the selected series, different CLIs are constructed, and that with the best performance is chosen as the CLI for Turkish economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Aslihan Atabek & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Saygin Sahinöz, 2005. "A New Composite Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 45-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:41:y:2005:i:1:p:45-64
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2014. "A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 23-45.
    2. Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Toh-Hao Tan & Shazali Abu Mansor & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2018. "Rethinking and Moving Beyond GDP: A New Measure of Sarawak Economy Panorama," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 127-133, December.
    3. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.
    4. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
    5. Shirly Siew-Ling WONG & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR & Venus Khim-Sen LIEW, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 235-248.
    6. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Margarida Rodrigues & Mário Franco, 2019. "Composite Index to Measure Cities’ Creative Performance: An Empirical Study in the Portuguese Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Esra Nazmiye KILCI, 2020. "Forecasting Stock Market Indices with the Composite Leading Indicators: Evidence from Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(43).
    9. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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