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A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises

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Listed:
  • Alessio Ciarlone

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giorgio Trebeschi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper develops an early warning system for sovereign debt crises, broadly defined as episodes of outright default, failure of a country to be current on external obligations and substantial access to IMF resources. It estimates a multinomial logit model that makes it possible to differentiate between three regimes labelled �tranquil�, �pre-crisis� and �adjustment�. The model includes a large set of macroeconomic variables and is able to predict, in-sample, 78 per cent of onsets of crisis while sending false alarms in 34 per cent of tranquil cases; its out-of-sample performance is very similar, with 70 per cent of entries into crisis correctly predicted and 20 per cent of tranquil cases triggering false alarms.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Ciarlone & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2006. "A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 588, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_588_06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
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    5. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
    6. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    8. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    9. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 2001/002, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager & Etti Baranoff, 2017. "A ternary-state early warning system for the European Union," Working Papers 222, Bank of Greece.
    2. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; early warning systems; debt crises; default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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