How to Evaluate an Early-Warning System: Toward a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods
This paper proposes an original and unified toolbox to evaluate financial crisis early-warning systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to assess the forecasts issued from different EWS (probit, logit, Markov switching models, or combinations of models). Second, this toolbox can be applied to any type of crisis EWS (currency, banking, sovereign debt, and so on). Third, it does not only provide various criteria to evaluate the (absolute) validity of EWS forecasts but also proposes some tests to compare the relative performance of alternative EWS. Fourth, this toolbox can be used to evaluate both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Applied to a logit model for 12 emerging countries we show that the yield spread is a key variable for predicting currency crises exclusively for South-Asian countries. Besides, the optimal cut-off correctly allows us to identify now on average more than 2/3 of the crisis and calm periods.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 60 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/41308/PS2|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:1:p:75-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.