The Impact of Banking Sector Stability on the Real Economy
This article studies the relationship between the degree of banking sector stability and the subsequent evolution of real output growth and inflation. Adopting a panel VAR methodology for a sample of 18 OECD countries, we find a positive link between banking sector stability and real output growth. This finding is predominantly driven by periods of instability rather than by very stable periods. In addition, we show that an unstable banking sector increases uncertainty about future output growth. No clear link between banking sector stability and inflation seems to exist. We then argue that the link between banking stability and real output growth can be used to improve output growth forecasts. Using Fed forecast errors, we show that banking sector stability (instability) results in a significant underestimation (overestimation) of GDP growth in the subsequent quarters.
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- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
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NBER Working Papers
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- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic crises and growth," Economics Working Papers 854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2004.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Working Papers 190, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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