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Towards a measure of financial fragility

  • Oriol Aspachs
  • Charles Goodhart
  • Dimitrios Tsomocos
  • Lea Zicchino

    ()

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks' probabilities of default and banks' profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10436-006-0061-z
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Annals of Finance.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 37-74

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Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:3:y:2007:i:1:p:37-74
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112370

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  1. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2004. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, 09.
  4. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  5. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-05, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  9. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  11. Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2788.
  12. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On modelling endogenous default," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24667, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
  14. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2003. "Loan Pricing Under Basel Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
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