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Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach

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  • Eric Tymoigne

Abstract

The paper uses the analytical framework developed by Hyman P. Minsky to construct an index of financial fragility for residential housing in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In the process, a clear difference is made between financial fragility, bubble, and fraud. The goal is to capture the growing interdependence between debt and asset price on the upside. The index is able to capture the rapid growth of financial fragility in residential housing from the early 2000s and an usually high level of financial fragility from 2004 in the United States. However, the construction of the index reveals that the data available are of limited quantity and quality for the purpose at hand. If the Financial Stability Oversight Council is serious about measuring systemic risk, better data about cash flows and loan underwriting should be collected in order to get an idea of the quality of leverage. This quality is measured by focusing on the means used to service debts instead of ability and willingness to service debt per se (i.e. credit risk).

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 719-744.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:36:y:2014:i:4:p:719-744 DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477360407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oriol Aspachs & Charles Goodhart & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2007. "Towards a measure of financial fragility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 37-74, January.
    2. Yasushi Suzuki, 2005. "Uncertainty, financial fragility and monitoring: Will Basle-type pragmatism resolve the Japanese banking crisis?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 45-61.
    3. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "The rise and fall of money manager capitalism: a Minskian approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 807-828, July.
    4. Reinold, Kate, 2011. "Housing equity withdrawal since the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 127-133.
    5. Luiz Fernando R. De Paula & Antonio José Alves, 2000. "External Financial Fragility and the 1998-1999 Brazilian Currency Crisis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 589-617, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
    2. Hiroshi Nishi, 2016. "An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility:Evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan," Discussion papers e-16-007, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    3. Leila E. Davis - Joao Paulo A. de Souza y Gonzalo Hernandez & Joao Paulo A. de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2017. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 015495, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    4. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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