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Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach

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  • Eric Tymoigne

Abstract

The paper uses the analytical framework developed by Hyman P. Minsky to construct an index of financial fragility for residential housing in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In the process, a clear difference is made between financial fragility, bubble, and fraud. The goal is to capture the growing interdependence between debt and asset price on the upside. The index is able to capture the rapid growth of financial fragility in residential housing from the early 2000s and an usually high level of financial fragility from 2004 in the United States. However, the construction of the index reveals that the data available are of limited quantity and quality for the purpose at hand. If the Financial Stability Oversight Council is serious about measuring systemic risk, better data about cash flows and loan underwriting should be collected in order to get an idea of the quality of leverage. This quality is measured by focusing on the means used to service debts instead of ability and willingness to service debt per se (i.e. credit risk).

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 719-744.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:36:y:2014:i:4:p:719-744
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477360407
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
    2. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility: evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 585-622.
    3. Leila E Davis & Joao Paulo A de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2019. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 541-583.
    4. Linh N. Phan & Mario G. Beruvides & Víctor G. Tercero-Gómez, 2024. "Statistical Analysis of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis for the 1945–2023 Era," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Greg Hannsgen, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Unemployment Insurance, and Financial Crises in a Model of Growth and Distribution," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_723, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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