IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/postke/v36y2014i4p719-744.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Tymoigne

Abstract

The paper uses the analytical framework developed by Hyman P. Minsky to construct an index of financial fragility for residential housing in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In the process, a clear difference is made between financial fragility, bubble, and fraud. The goal is to capture the growing interdependence between debt and asset price on the upside. The index is able to capture the rapid growth of financial fragility in residential housing from the early 2000s and an usually high level of financial fragility from 2004 in the United States. However, the construction of the index reveals that the data available are of limited quantity and quality for the purpose at hand. If the Financial Stability Oversight Council is serious about measuring systemic risk, better data about cash flows and loan underwriting should be collected in order to get an idea of the quality of leverage. This quality is measured by focusing on the means used to service debts instead of ability and willingness to service debt per se (i.e. credit risk).

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 719-744.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:36:y:2014:i:4:p:719-744
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477360407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2753/PKE0160-3477360407
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2753/PKE0160-3477360407?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oriol Aspachs & Charles Goodhart & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2007. "Towards a measure of financial fragility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 37-74, January.
    2. Reinold, Kate, 2011. "Housing equity withdrawal since the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 127-133.
    3. Luiz Fernando R. De Paula & Antonio José Alves, 2000. "External Financial Fragility and the 1998-1999 Brazilian Currency Crisis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 589-617, July.
    4. Amitava Krishna Dutt (ed.), 2003. "Development Economics and Structuralist Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2658.
    5. D. L. Isenberg, 1988. "Is There a Case for Minsky’s Financial Fragility Hypothesis in the 1920s?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 1045-1069, December.
    6. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "The rise and fall of money manager capitalism: a Minskian approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(4), pages 807-828, July.
    7. Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312.
    8. Yasushi Suzuki, 2005. "Uncertainty, financial fragility and monitoring: Will Basle-type pragmatism resolve the Japanese banking crisis?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 45-61.
    9. S. Knutsen & E. Lie, 2002. "Financial Fragility, Growth Strategies and Banking Failures: The Major Norwegian Banks and the Banking Crisis, 1987-92," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 88-111.
    10. Mario Seccareccia, 1988. "Systemic Viability and Credit Crunches: An Examination of Recent Canadian Cyclical Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 49-77, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility: evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 585-622.
    2. Leila E Davis & Joao Paulo A de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2019. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 541-583.
    3. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
    4. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "Three decades of modelling Minsky: what we have learned and the way forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 222-237, September.
    3. Ernani Teixeira Torres Filho & Norberto Montani Martins & Caroline Yukari Miaguti, 2017. "Minsky's Financial Fragility: An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Distribution Companies in Brazil (2007-15)," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_896, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Susan Schroeder, 2009. "Defining and detecting financial fragility: New Zealand's experience," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 287-307, February.
    5. Sébastien Charles, 2008. "Teaching Minsky's financial instability hypothesis: a manageable suggestion," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 125-138, September.
    6. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility: evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 585-622.
    7. Ítalo Pedrosa & Dany Lang, 2021. "To what extent does aggregate leverage determine financial fragility? New insights from an agent-based stock-flow consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1221-1275, September.
    8. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.
    9. Eric Tymigne, 2011. "Financial stability, regulatory buffers and economic growth after the Great Recession: some regulatory implications," Chapters, in: Charles J. Whalen (ed.), Financial Instability and Economic Security after the Great Recession, chapter 6, pages 114-140, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    11. Avner Offer, 2013. "Narrow Banking, Real Estate, and Financial Stability in the UK, c.1870-2010," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _116, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Tae-Hee Jo, 2013. "Saving Private Business Enterprises," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 447-467, April.
    13. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    14. Wolfgang Pointner & Burkhard Raunig, 2018. "A primer on peer-to-peer lending: immediate financial intermediation in practice," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/18, pages 36-51.
    15. Yasushi Suzuki, 2002. "BANK RENTS AND UNCERTAINTY. A Legacy of the Subjectivists," Working Papers 123, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    16. Goodhart, C.A.E. & Sunirand, P. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2011. "The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 70-77, June.
    17. Joseph Norton, 1998. "The Korean financial crisis, reform and positive transformation: Is a second 'Han river miracle' possible?," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 3-36.
    18. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    19. Charles J. Whalen, 2012. "Post-Keynesian Institutionalism after the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_724, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Martin Watts & Timothy Sharpe & James Juniper, 2014. "Reformation or exodus: Assessing the future of the Euro," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(3), pages 465-483, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:36:y:2014:i:4:p:719-744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MPKE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.