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Actually This Time Is Different


  • Renée Fry
  • Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao
  • Chrismin Tang


Episodes of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets are examined during eight crises ranging from Asia in 1997-98 to the recent great recession of 2008-10. The analysis focuses on changes in the dependence structures of equity markets through correlation and coskewness to answer the question of whether the great recession is different to other crises in terms of shock transmission through contagion. The results show that ‘this time is different’ and that the great recession is truly a global financial crisis. Other US sourced crises do not affect other markets through contagion, and emerging market crises transmit unexpectedly.

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  • Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-12

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2009. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 241-260, June.
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    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    7. MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "Are Financial Crises Alike?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    2. Lumiajiak Sutsarun & Treepongkaruna Sirimon & Wee Marvin & Brooks Robert, 2014. "Thai Financial Markets and Political Change," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-26, July.
    3. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    4. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Tabak, Benjamin M. & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo & da Silva Medeiros, Maurício, 2016. "Contagion in CDS, banking and equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 120-134.
    6. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 122-139, May.
    8. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao, 2014. "Extremal Dependence and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2016. "Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-75.
    10. Fabio Parlapiano & Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey, 2017. "Exchange rate risk exposure and the value of European firms," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 111-129, January.

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