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Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market

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  • Kim, Don H.
  • Loretan, Mico
  • Remolona, Eli M.

Abstract

In the turmoil of 2007-2009, troubles in a small segment of the US mortgage market escalated into a crisis of global proportions. A striking feature of the crisis is the contagion that hit Asia. In a region where direct exposures to problem mortgages were minimal, credit spreads for major borrowers widened even more than they did in Europe and the United States. We argue that the contagion was part of an amplification mechanism driven by valuation losses caused by the bursting of a global credit bubble. The valuation losses stemmed not so much from a reassessment of credit risks as from a global repricing of these risks. It was this repricing that was the main channel for contagion into Asian credit (and equity) markets. For empirical evidence, we analyze fluctuations in credit default swap (CDS) spreads and expected default frequencies (EDFs) for major Asian borrowers. We find that valuation losses on CDS contracts for these Asian borrowers arose in part from movements in global and region-specific risk pricing factors as well as from revisions to expected losses from defaults.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Don H. & Loretan, Mico & Remolona, Eli M., 2010. "Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 314-326, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:314-326
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    Cited by:

    1. Zalán Kocsis, 2013. "Global, Regional and Country-Specific Components of Financial Market Indicators: An Extraction Method and Applications," MNB Working Papers 2013/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Martha López, 2015. "Asset price bubbles and monetary policy in a small open economy," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(77), pages 93-102, June.
    3. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-113.
    4. Rebecca Craigie & Anella Munro, 2010. "Financial sector amplification and credit cycles in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, pages 15-34, June.
    5. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    6. Andrew Filardo, 2011. "The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Asia and the Pacific: Highlighting Monetary Policy Challenges from a Negative Asset Price Bubble Perspective," BIS Working Papers 356, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
      • Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 36-43 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:30-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nephil Matangi Maskay, 2010. "Macro-Financial Links and Monetary Policy Management," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp78, April.
    12. Ju-Fang Yen & Chih-Yung Lin & Yan-Shing Chen & Ying-Chen Huang, 2015. "Founding Family Firms and Bank Loan Contracts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 53-82, August.
    13. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2015. "Why is no financial crisis a dress rehearsal for the next? Exploring contagious heterogeneities across major Asian stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 241-259.
    14. Hsien-Yi LEE, 2011. "Contagion in International Stock Markets During the sub Prime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 141-158, December.
    15. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2017. "The role of Islamic asset classes in the diversified portfolios: Mean variance spanning test," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 66-95.
    16. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Mensi, Walid, 2017. "Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 310-324.
    17. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "Contagion and interdependence across Asia-Pacific equity markets: An analysis based on multi-horizon discrete and continuous wavelet transformations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 363-377.
    18. Falik shear & Hilal Anwar Butt & Imtiaz Badshah, 2017. "An analysis of the relationship between the sovereign credit default swaps and the stock market of Pakistan through handling outliers," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4807486, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    19. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Alaoui, Abdelkader & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2013. "Comovement and resiliency of Islamic equity market: Evidence from GCC Islamic equity index based on wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 56980, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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