IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56362.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fragility Of Interest-Based Debt Financing: Is It Worth Sustaining A Regime Uncertainty?

Author

Listed:
  • Shaukat, Mughees
  • Mirakhor, Abbas
  • Krichene, Noureddine

Abstract

Evidence has been mounting that the interest-based debt financing regime is under increasing distress. Evidence also suggests that the financial crises, whatever title they carried - exchange rate crisis or banking crisis – have been debt crises in essence. At present, data suggest that the debt-to-GDP ratio of the richest members of the G-20 is expected to reach 120% mark by 2014. There is also evidence that out of securities worth US$ 200 trillion in the global economy, no less than three-fourth represents interest-based debt. It is difficult to see how this massive debt volume can be validated by the underlying productive capacity of the global economy. This picture becomes more alarming considering the anemic state of global economic growth. There is great uncertainty with regard to interest rates. Although policy-driven interest rates are near-zero level, there is no assurance that they will not rise as the risk and inflation premia become significant. Hence, a more serious financial crisis may be in the offing and a general collapse of asset prices may occur. This paper argues that the survival of the interest-based debt regime is becoming less tenable, as is the process of financialization that has accompanied the growth of global finance over the last four decades. It further argues that Islamic finance, with its core characteristic of risk sharing, may well be a viable alternative to the present interest-based debt financing regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaukat, Mughees & Mirakhor, Abbas & Krichene, Noureddine, 2013. "Fragility Of Interest-Based Debt Financing: Is It Worth Sustaining A Regime Uncertainty?," MPRA Paper 56362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56362
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56362/1/MPRA_paper_56362.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nick Bloom & Steven J. Davis & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty," CEP US Election Analysis Papers 002, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
    5. Sheng,Andrew, 2009. "From Asian to Global Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521134156, Enero-Abr.
    6. Haque, Nadeem ul & Mirakhor, Abbas, 1999. "The Design of Instruments For Government Finance in An Islamic Economy," MPRA Paper 56028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly," MPRA Paper 11864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    10. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    11. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    14. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2009. "Islamic Economics and Finance: An Institutional Perspective," MPRA Paper 56017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Choudhry, Nurun N. & Mirakhor, Abbas, 1997. "Indirect Instruments Of Monetary Control In An Islamic Financial System," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 4, pages 28-65.
    16. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    17. Mirakhor, Abbas & Krichene, Noureddine, 2009. "The Recent Crisis: Lessons for Islamic Finance," MPRA Paper 56022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210.
    21. Farmer, Roger E. A., 2014. "How the Economy Works: Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199360307, Decembrie.
    22. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    23. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2006. "The Debt-Growth Nexus: a Dynamic Panel Data Estimation," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 417-462.
    24. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
    26. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    28. Hasan, Zubair, 1988. "Distributional equity in Islam," MPRA Paper 2785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Kim, Soyoung & Kim, Sunghyun H. & Wang, Yunjong, 2006. "Financial integration and consumption risk sharing in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 143-157, March.
    30. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    31. Sheng,Andrew, 2009. "From Asian to Global Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521118644, Enero-Abr.
    32. Wincoop, Eric van, 1994. "Welfare gains from international risksharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 175-200, October.
    33. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2007. "Islamic Finance and Globalization: A Convergence?," MPRA Paper 56026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. J. E. Meade, 1958. "Is The National Debt A Burden?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 163-183.
    35. M. K. Hassan & Mervyn K. Lewis (ed.), 2007. "Islamic Finance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3020.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaukat, Mughees & Othman Alhabshi, Datuk, 2015. "Instability of Interest Bearing Debt Finance and the Islamic Finance Alternative By Mughees Shaukat & Datuk Othman Alhabshi," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 23, pages 29-84.
    2. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2010. "Whither Islamic Finance? Risk Sharing in An Age of Crises," MPRA Paper 56341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2012. "Islamic Finance, Risk Sharing and Macroeconomic Policies," MPRA Paper 56338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    5. Mirakhor , Abbas & Shaukat , Mughees, 2012. "Survival of the Interest Rate Based Debt Financing System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, July.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e23 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e37 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert Lensink & Hong Bo & Elmer Sterken, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 379-396, September.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "A Decade of Debt," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 4, pages 97-135, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    12. Manamba EPAPHRA & William MESIET, 2021. "The external debt burden and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 175-206, Summer.
    13. Lensink, Robert, 1999. "Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis," Research Report 99E37, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. repec:ecb:ecbops:2014165 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    16. Zhang, Dongyang, 2020. "Innovation dynamics -what are the housing market uncertainty’s impacts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 413-422.
    17. repec:dgr:rugccs:199902 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Shinji Asanuma, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability & Competitiveness in Europe and Asia by Ramkishen S. Rajan , Tan Khee Giap and Tan Kong Yam Palgrave Macmillan , New York , 2014 xii+202. ISBN 978 1 137 40696 5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 194-195, May.
    19. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    20. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    21. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2015. "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 5-17, June.
    22. Kamanda Espoir, Delphin, 2024. "Investigating the dynamic impacts of public debt on economic growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a case of quantile on quantile regression," MPRA Paper 122415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Bjørnskov, Christian, 2016. "Economic freedom and economic crises," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 11-23.
    24. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Complexity; Black Swans; Debt Stress; Islamic finance; Risk-Sharing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.